中国省域新型城镇化的动态耦合协调发展机制研究  

Research on the Dynamic Coupling and Healthy Development Mechanism of the New Urbanization in the Provinces of China

作　　者：王周伟[1] 柳闫[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学房地产与城市发展研究中心,上海200234

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2015年第10期1-13,共13页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目<住房保障家庭福利依赖及经济自助行为研究>(71473166)

摘　　要：城市营运体系涵盖经济系统、人口系统、金融系统、能源系统、环境系统与公共服务系统,新型城镇化应当是这六个子系统全面协调发展的城镇化。首先从理论上分析了六个子系统之间的相互作用与耦合协调发展关系;然后以全国30个省份与直辖市为研究对象,综合评价了六个子系统;利用耦合协调度指标度量各省市六个子系统的耦合协调发展水平;利用σ收敛检验准则各省域耦合协调发展水平的收敛情况;并进一步利用PVAR模型实证度量了六者之间的相互作用关系,解析了欠协调的成因。研究表明,中国省域耦合协调发展水平总体上较高,具有集聚性差异;经济越发达,综合实力越强的省份的耦合协调程度越高;2004-2012年间耦合协调状况并不具有收敛性。The operation system of the urban includes six subsystems：the system of urban economy, urban population system, urban financial system, urban energy system, urban environment and urban public service system, new-type urbanization means that the six sub-systems should be comprehensive, coordinated. Firstly, theoretically analysis the interaction and coupling relations of coordinated development between the six subsystems. Then take 30 provinces of China as the research objects, comprehensively evaluate the six subsystems. By using three indicators （ coordination degree, comprehensive development level and the degree of coupling） measure coupling coordinated development and convergence of the six subsystems in 30 provinces, and using the PVAR model analysis of the interaction between the six subsystems, further explaining the causes of less coordinated.

关 键 词：新型城镇化 城市营运系统 耦合协调度 PVAR模型 

分 类 号：F291[经济管理—国民经济]