大坝群安全应急协同度的动态综合评价  

Dynamic comprehensive evaluation of synergistic degree of emergency response in dam group

作　　者：江新[1,2] 朱沛文 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]湖北省水电工程施工与管理重点实验室(三峡大学),湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2015年第8期157-163,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(51379110);水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室(三峡大学)开放基金资助(2014KSD05)

摘　　要：为准确评价大坝群安全应急协同水平,有必要研究大坝群的协同应急运作机理和动态综合评价方法。构建大坝群安全应急协同度评价指标体系,分析各大坝之间的协同应急运作机理。利用网络层次分析法(ANP)确定不同时段安全应急指标的权重,进而采用线性加权法实施静态评价。通过时序加权平均(TOWA)-时序加权几何平均(TOWGA)混合算子集结应急预防和响应2个时段的评价值,得到大坝群安全应急协同度的动态综合评价值,同时计算不同时段各大坝的安全应急协同有序度,从而判断大坝群整体的协同应急状况。用所建评价方法,对某一典型的梯级水电站大坝群进行评价。结果表明,乙大坝的安全应急协同水平最高;加强资源共享和救援队伍的演练将有助于提高甲和丙大坝的应急协同水平。For evaluating the synergistic degree of safety emergency response in dam group accurately,it is necessary to study the coordinated emergency response mechanism and dynamic comprehensive evaluation methods of dam group. An evaluation index system of synergistic degree of safety emergency response in dam group was set up to analyze the coordinated emergency response mechanism of each dam. The ANP was used to determine the weights of safety emergency indexes at different stages. The linear weighted method was used to obtain the static evaluation. Evaluation values of emergency prevention and response were then reintegrated by using a mixed operator model that was built by the authors and was based on TOWA and TOWGA operators,thus final dynamic comprehensive evaluation results of the synergistic degree of safety emergency response in dam group can be obtained,and the order degree of each dam＇s synergistic degree of safety emergency response can be calculated at different stages,thus the synergistic emergency condition of the whole dam group can be judged. A typical dam group of cascade hydropower station was evaluated by using the method. The results show that the synergistic degree of dam No. 2 is the highest in terms of emergency response,and that strengthening the resource sharing and training the rescue team will favor the synergistic degrees of dams No. 1 and No. 3.

关 键 词：安全应急 协同度 时序加权平均算子(TOWA) 时序加权几何平均算子(TOWGA) 大坝群 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]