福建省港口物流与对外贸易关系的实证研究  

An Empirical Etudy on the Relationship Between Port Logistics and Foreign Trade in Fujian Province

作　　者：苏婷婷[1] 

机构地区：[1]福州大学经济与管理学院,福建福州350108

出　　处：《物流工程与管理》2015年第9期31-33,共3页Logistics Engineering and Management

摘　　要：文中收集福建省1984-2013年的港口吞吐量以及进出口总额数据,对数据进行统计分析,建立VAR模型,运用协整理论和格兰杰因果检验分析福建省港口物流和进出口贸易的关系。发现港口吞吐量和进出口总额之间存在长期均衡关系,进一步检验得到港口吞吐量对进出口总额有显著影响,但是进出口总额的变化对港口吞吐量没有显著的拉动作用,即二者存在单向因果关系,在以上分析的基础上,对福建省港口物流的发展提出建议。In this paper,we collected port throughput figures and data on imports and exports,analyzed the relationship between the port logistics and import and export trade of Fujian province by establishing VAR model and using co integration theory and Granger causality test. The results show that there is a long- term equilibrium relationship between the port throughput and the total amount of imports and exports. We found that port throughput has a significant effect on the total amount of imports and exports,but the total import and export volume has no significant effect on the port throughput. Based on the above analysis,we put forward some suggestions on the development of port logistics in Fujian province.

关 键 词：港口物流 对外贸易 格兰杰因果检验 

分 类 号：F550[经济管理—产业经济]