中央林业投资与林业经济增长的互动关系  

Interaction Relationship between Central Forestry Investment and Forestry Economic Growth in China

作　　者：才琪[1] 陈绍志[2] 赵荣[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]中国林业科学研究院科技信息研究所,北京100091

出　　处：《林业科学》2015年第9期126-133,共8页Scientia Silvae Sinicae

基　　金：中国林业科学研究院院基金资助项目"林业重点产业竞争力和发展潜力预测研究"(CAFYBB2014MB004);国家林业局重大调研项目"中央林业投资效率研究"

摘　　要：[目的]研究中央林业投资与林业经济增长之间的互动关系,建立中央林业投资效率评价方法体系,明确中央林业投资在林业经济增长中的地位及作用,为衡量中央林业投资利用效率提供实证依据,在促进财政资源优化配置、提高资金使用绩效的同时,推动林业经济增长。[方法]基于1987—2013年数据,采用Stata13.0软件对数据进行处理,利用科布-道格拉斯生产函数分析中央林业投资、林业劳动力投入水平对林业经济增长的贡献率;利用VAR模型测算中央林业投资的滞后期,使用协整关系检验,得出林业经济增长和中央林业投资存在长期协整关系;结合格兰杰因果检验,判断中央林业投资和林业经济增长之间短期的因果关系;根据误差修正模型分别论证当中央林业投资和林业经济增长偏离均衡水平时,在短期内恢复长期均衡的可能性,利用脉冲响应函数,更直观地判断二者变动在长期内对自身和相互之间的影响。[结果]1）中央林业投资对林业经济增长具有正向推动作用,其贡献率为1.517%。2）中央林业投资存在1～2年的滞后期,此后开始发挥作用。长期内林业产值对中央林业投资增长具有收入效应,1%的林业经济增长可带动0.991%的中央林业投资。林业产值无法在短期内促进中央林业投资额迅速增长,但中央林业投资在短期会拉动林业产值的增加。3）中央林业投资与林业产值存在长期均衡关系,且当中央林业投资偏离均衡水平时,在短期内恢复长期均衡的速度快于林业产值。林业产值具有累加效应,中央林业投资对自身存在积累和拉动效应,林业产值对中央林业投资会产生收入效应,中央林业投资对林业产值存在乘数扩大效应。[结论]结合中央林业投资与林业经济增长存在的作用与反作用关系,提出加大中央林业投资力度、坚持持续合理投入、做出长远政策规划、防止年际间大[Objective]Study on the interaction relationship between central forestry investment and forestry economic growth and the establishment of the central forestry investment evaluation system are good for clearing the status of central forestry investment in forestry economic growth. This will provide empirical basis for measuring the efficient of central forestry investment,promote optimal allocation of financial resources,increase the fund performance,and also will drive the forestry economic growth.[Method]The software of Stata13. 0 and data from 1987 to 2013 were used in this study. First,the C-D production function was used to analysis the contribution rate about central forestry investment and forestry labor input to forestry economic growth. Then VAR model was utilized to calculate lag phase of forestry investment,co-integration relationship test showed that forestry economic growth had the reaction to forestry investment during the long-term equilibrium and granger causality test to determine the short-term causality between forestry investment and forestry economic growth. Furthermore,error correction model respectively to argue when the central forestry investment and forestry economic growth deviated from its equilibrium level,the possibility to restore the long-term balance in the short time. Finally,impulse response function could more intuitively to response the impact on each other and itself in long＆amp;nbsp;term.[Result]The results shows that：1） Central forestry investment has a positive role in promoting economic growth with contribution rate of 1. 517%. 2） The lag of central forestry investment is 1 to 2 years and then began to work. Forestry production has a significant pull impact on forestry investment growth which presents 1% of forestry economic growth leading to 0. 991% of forestry investment. Forestry economic growth does not rapidly promote the forestry investment growth,however,the central forestry investment can improve the forestry economic growth in the short term. 3） Central

关 键 词：中央林业投资 林业产值 科布-道格拉斯生产函数 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F326.2[经济管理—产业经济]