中巴经济走廊建设中双边贸易潜力及效率研究——基于随机前沿引力模型分析  

A Study of Bilateral Trade Potential and Efficiency in the Construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor——Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

作　　者：高志刚[1] 张燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2015年第11期101-110,共10页Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目"中国新疆与周边国家的能源与贸易互联互通建设战略研究(项目编号:13AZD083)";国家社科基金重大项目"中国新疆周边国家经济安全机制比较和整合研究"(项目编号:14ZDA088);新疆维吾尔自治区基金项目"中巴经济走廊建设中双边贸易潜力及效率研究--基于随机前沿引力模型的分析"(项目编号:XJGRI2015124)

摘　　要：本文在分析中国与巴基斯坦贸易现状的基础上,选取2008—2013年中国与15个贸易伙伴国相关变量的面板数据,构建时变随机前沿引力模型,运用Frontier4.1软件从双边贸易和出口贸易两个层面分析中巴贸易效率并测算贸易潜力。结果表明:2008—2013年中巴双边贸易效率值均在0.3-0.5范围内,而中对巴出口效率值均在0.9以上,双边贸易效率明显低于出口效率;中巴双边贸易潜力远大于中对巴出口贸易潜力;未来中国将成为巴基斯坦重要的出口对象国,中国顺差地位将逐渐发生转变。中巴双方应利用中巴经济走廊建设的契机,从贸易通道、制度安排、贸易环境等方面提高中巴双边贸易效率并充分挖掘双方贸易潜力。After described the situation of bilateral trade between China and Pakistan, this article selects fifteen trading partners＇ data during the period of 2008 - 2013, builds the time - varying stochastic frontier gravity model, and uses Frontier4. 1 software to analyze trade efficiency and trade potential from the level of bilateral trade and export trade between China and Pakistan. The results show that, the values of bilateral trade efficien- cy are within the scope of 0. 3 to 0. 5 in 2008 - 2013, and the values of exports＇ efficiency are all above 0. 9. It means bilateral wade efficiency is significantly lower than the exports＇ efficiency and bilateral wade potential is greater than the export trade potential. In the future, China will become important exports partner of Pakistan and shift gradually trade surplus status. The two sides should take advantage of opportunity of the construction of the China- Pakistan economic corridor, from aspects concerning trade channel, institutional arrangements, trade environment, to improve the efficiency and tap fully the potential of bilateral trade.

关 键 词：中巴经济走廊 贸易潜力 贸易效率 随机前沿引力模型 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]