机电产品可靠性寿命试验数据的灰色预测方法  

Grey Forecasting Method of Mechanical and Electronic Products Reliability Life Test Data

作　　者：谭冠军[1] 檀甲友[1] 王加阳[2] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学机电工程学院,湖南长沙410083 [2]中南大学信息科学与工程学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2015年第19期168-174,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

摘　　要：采用灰色系统预测理论对产品可靠性寿命试验数据进行预测,提出了建立产品可靠性寿命试验数据的灰色预测NGM(1,1)模型的方法,并通过采用试验数据序列与预测数据序列总体分布函数相等性检验方法确认灰色预测NGM(1,1)模型用于产品可靠性寿命试验数据预测是可行的.算例结果表明,采用灰色预测方法预测产品可靠性寿命试验数据并进行相关的分布函数参数估计有较高的精度,可达到缩短试验时间和节约试验费用目的.In this paper,the grey system forecasting theory is used to forecast the products reliability life test data,and the modeling approach of NGM（1,1） grey prediction model for products reliability life test data is proposed.By examining the overall distribution function equality of test data sequence and forecasted data sequence,it is confirmed that the proposed NGM（1,1） grey prediction model can be effectively used for the prediction of product reliability life test data.The example results show that the grey forecasting method for the prediction of product reliability life test data has high precision,and distribution function parameters of the test data sequence and the forecasted data sequence axe very close Using the proposed method can shorten test time and save test cost.

关 键 词：机电产品 可靠性 寿命试验数据 灰色预测方法 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计] N941.5[理学—数学]