Spatial pattern and its evolution of Chinese provincial population： Methods and empirical study  

作　　者：DENG Yu LIU Shenghe CAI Jianming LU Xi Chris P NIELSEN 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China [2]Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China [3]School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard Cambridge, MA 02138, USA

出　　处：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》2015年第12期1507-1520,共14页地理学报（英文版）

基　　金：Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.71433008; Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.KZZD-EW-06-04; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41271174; National Key Technology R＆D Program, No.2012BAI32B06; Beijing Planning of Philosophy and Social Science, No. 13CSC011

摘　　要：China has been experiencing an unprecedented urbanization process. In 2011, China＇s urban population reached 691 million with an urbanization rate of 51.27%. Urbaniza- tion level is expected to increase to 70% in China in 2030, reflecting the projection that nearly 300 million people would migrate from rural areas to urban areas over this period. At the same time, the total fertility rate of China＇s population is declining due to the combined effect of economic growth, environmental carrying capacity, and modern social consciousness. The Chinese government has loosened its ＂one-child policy＂ gradually by allowing childbearing couples to have the second child as long as either of them is from a one-child family. In such rapidly developing country, the natural growth and spatial migration will consistently reshape spatial pattern of population. An accurate prediction of the future spatial pattern of population and its evolution trend are critical to key policy-making processes and spatial planning in China including urbanization, land use development, ecological conservation and environ- mental protection. In this paper, a top-down method is developed to project the spatial dis- tribution of China＇s future population with considerations of both natural population growth at provincial level and the provincial migration from 2010 to 2050. Building on this, the spatial pattern and evolution trend of Chinese provincial population are analyzed. The results sug- gested that the overall spatial pattern of Chinese population will be unlikely changed in next four decades, with the east area having the highest population density and followed by central area, northeast and west area. Four provinces in the east, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin and Jiangsu, will remain the top in terms of population density in China, and Xinjiang, Qinghai and Tibet will continue to have the lowest density of population. We introduced an index system to classify the Chinese provinces into three categories in terms of provincial population dChina has been experiencing an unprecedented urbanization process. In 2011, China＇s urban population reached 691 million with an urbanization rate of 51.27%. Urbaniza- tion level is expected to increase to 70% in China in 2030, reflecting the projection that nearly 300 million people would migrate from rural areas to urban areas over this period. At the same time, the total fertility rate of China＇s population is declining due to the combined effect of economic growth, environmental carrying capacity, and modern social consciousness. The Chinese government has loosened its ＂one-child policy＂ gradually by allowing childbearing couples to have the second child as long as either of them is from a one-child family. In such rapidly developing country, the natural growth and spatial migration will consistently reshape spatial pattern of population. An accurate prediction of the future spatial pattern of population and its evolution trend are critical to key policy-making processes and spatial planning in China including urbanization, land use development, ecological conservation and environ- mental protection. In this paper, a top-down method is developed to project the spatial dis- tribution of China＇s future population with considerations of both natural population growth at provincial level and the provincial migration from 2010 to 2050. Building on this, the spatial pattern and evolution trend of Chinese provincial population are analyzed. The results sug- gested that the overall spatial pattern of Chinese population will be unlikely changed in next four decades, with the east area having the highest population density and followed by central area, northeast and west area. Four provinces in the east, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin and Jiangsu, will remain the top in terms of population density in China, and Xinjiang, Qinghai and Tibet will continue to have the lowest density of population. We introduced an index system to classify the Chinese provinces into three categories in terms of provincial population d

关 键 词：China PROVINCIAL POPULATION URBANIZATION MIGRATION spatial pattern natural growth 

分 类 号：TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计] N031[自然科学总论—科学技术哲学]