城乡居民基本养老保险个人账户基金收支平衡模拟与预测——基于个体法的一项研究  

Simulation and Prediction on the Fund Payment Balance of the Personal Account of the Urban and Rural Residents' Basic Pension Insurance——A Study Based on Individual Method

作　　者：薛惠元[1] 仙蜜花[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学社会保障研究中心,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2015年第10期82-90,共9页Contemporary Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目<新型农村社会养老保险制度的可持续性评估研究>(11CSH067);中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目<新型农村社会养老保险基金收支平衡的可持续性研究>(2013T60748)

摘　　要：采用个体法,通过构建基金收支平衡精算模型,对城乡居民基本养老保险个人账户基金的收支平衡情况做出了模拟和预测,发现未来城乡居保个人账户基金存在收支缺口。个人账户收益率、个人账户养老金计发系数、60岁城乡居民的平均预期余命是影响城乡居保个人账户基金收支平衡的决定性因素;缴费档次、政府缴费补贴、城乡居民收入增长率、缴费年限虽然不能决定基金收支平衡,但却会影响基金缺口的大小。为实现城乡居保个人账户基金收支平衡,建议适时调整个人账户养老金计发系数,拓宽个人账户基金投资渠道,尽快实现城乡居保基金省级管理,设立城乡居保风险储备金,适时延迟城乡居民养老金领取年龄。Employing the individual method and through building an actuarial model for fund payment balance, the article simulated and predicted the personal account fund payment balance of the urban and rural residents' basic pension insurance and found that a gap between the revenue and the expenditure will appear in the future. The return rate of personal accounts, the personal account pension divisor coefficient, and the average life span expectancy of urban and rural residents who are now older than 60, are all determinants that would influence. Meanwhile,the premium payment level, the amount of government subsidies, the urban and rural residents' income growth rate, and the premium payment years would determine the scale of the gap, although they are not decisive to the payment balance. To achieve the balance, the article suggested that the personal account pension divisor coefficient should be timely and appropriately adjusted, and the investment channel should be broadened.The provincial administration and a risk reserve of the residents' basic public insurance and should also be set up as soon as possible.Meanwhile, the age requirement for the urban and rural residents' pension extraction should also be increased.

关 键 词：城乡居民基本养老保险 个人账户 基金收支平衡 模拟与预测 基金收支缺口 

分 类 号：F842.612[经济管理—保险]