高公共债务一贯扼杀经济增长吗？--对莱因哈特和罗格夫的批判  

Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth?A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff

作　　者：托马斯.赫顿 迈克尔.阿什 罗伯特.波林 赵准[3] 

机构地区：[1]美国马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校经济系 [2]美国马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校 [3]清华大学社会科学院经济研究所

出　　处：《政治经济学评论》2015年第6期143-161,共19页China Review of Political Economy

摘　　要：我们重做莱因哈特和罗格夫在2010年的研究发现编码错误(coding errors)、选择性排除可得数据(selective exclusion of available data)、对加总统计量进行非常规赋权(unconventional weighting of summary statistics),导致了他们在描绘20个发达经济体"二战"后公共债务与GDP增长之间关系时犯了严重错误。我们的发现是:当正确计算的时候,公共债务与GDP之比大于90%的国家的平均GDP增长率实际是2.2%,而不是莱因哈特和罗格夫所说的-0.1%。也即与莱因哈特和罗格夫相反,与公共债务与GDP之比较低的情况相比,公共债务与GDP之比大于90%时,平均GDP的增长并不会明显下降。我们还展示了公共债务与GDP增长之间的关系怎样随时期和国家的不同而发生明显的变化。总的说来,我们重审的证据与莱因哈特和罗格夫所宣称的公共债务占GDP的比重大于90%时会一贯降低GDP的增长这一重要的典型事实是相矛盾的。We replicate Reinhart and Rogoff＇s papers published in 2010 and find that coding errors, selective exclusion of available data, and unconventional weighting of summary statistics lead to serious errors that inaccurately represent the relationship between public debt and GDP growth among 20 advanced economies in the post-war period. Our finding is that when properly calculated, the average real GDP growth rate for countries carrying a public-debt-to-GDP ratio of over 90 percent is actually 2.2 per- cent, not --0. 1 percent as published in Reinhart and Rogoff. That is, contrary to Rein- hart and Rogoff, average GDP growth at public debt/GDP ratios over 90 percent is not dramatically different than when debt/GDP ratios are lower. We also show how the relationship between public debt and GDP growth varies significantly by time period and country. Overall, the evidence we review contradicts Reinhart and Rogoff＇s claim to have identified an important stylized fact, that public debt loads greater than 90 percent of GDP consistently reduce GDP growth.

关 键 词：公共债务 财政紧缩 

分 类 号：F811.5[经济管理—财政学]