东亚区域主导货币——人民币与日元的比较  

Dominating Currency of East Asia:Comparisons between RMB and Japanese Yen

作　　者：崔蕊[1] 祝国平[2] 

机构地区：[1]长春理工大学经济管理学院,吉林长春130022 [2]吉林财经大学吉林农村金融研究中心,吉林长春130117

出　　处：《现代日本经济》2015年第6期53-64,共12页Contemporary Economy OF Japan

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金项目"人民币国际化进程中我国短期资本流动的风险及其管理研究"(12YJC790298)

摘　　要：亚洲金融危机后,东亚区域开始货币合作。2005年伴随东亚经济的复苏,货币合作的步伐有所放缓。2008年美国金融危机后,货币合作呈现升温的态势。东盟10国与中日韩3国在经济政策协调、货币互换网络、东亚外汇储备库和双边贸易结算试点方面进行了积极的努力。未来何种货币替代美元有助于东亚深化货币合作?东亚区域主导货币的争论集中于人民币和日元的选择。本文采用最优货币区理论的5项指标,经过东亚人民币区与日元区在美国金融危机前后的发展变化比较,结果显示,中国在双边贸易开放度、汇率波动性以及通货膨胀率一致性方面高于日本与东亚其他7个经济体的融合程度,在利率协同性和商业周期协同性方面,中国和日本都没有明显优势。综合而言,日元难以成为东亚区域主导货币,人民币货币区正在悄然形成。为深入推动人民币区域化,中国大陆应该建设人民币跨境投融资中心,通过打造中国—东盟自由贸易区升级版使中国成为东亚真正的最大市场提供者,完善人民币境内外回流机制,将中国大陆经济成长的红利与东亚区域分享。After the Asian financial crisis, monetary cooperation began in East Asia. In 2005, with the eco- nomic recovery of East Asia, monetary cooperation slowed down, while, after the financial crisis of the U. S. in 2008, it turn to warm again. The 10 ASEAN countries and China,Japan,South Korea have made positive efforts in promoting economic policy coordination, creating currency exchange network, building East Asian foreign exchange pool and bilateral trade settlement pilot. In future dominating currency in East Asia is a debate focused on the choice , which currency will replace dollar to be between RMB and the Japanese yen. Using five indicators of the theory of Optimum Currency Area, the paper compared the changes of RMB and yen Cur- rency Union in East Asia before and after the U. S. financial crisis. It is found that China was in higher degree in trade openness, business cycle coordination, and exchange rate volatility and inflation consistency than Japan and other seven economies, however, in interest rate and business cycle synergy, China has neither advantage nor disadvantage. In general, the yen is difficult RMB currency area is quietly forming. In order to to become the dominant currency in East Asia, while the further promote the regionalization of RMB, China should build RMB cross -border investment and financing center, become the largest market provider of East Asia, improve the domestic and overseas flow - back mechanism, and share fruits of China＇s economic growth with entities in East Asian region.

关 键 词：主导货币 人民币区域化 东亚货币合作 最优货币区 日元区 

分 类 号：F823.313.0[经济管理—财政学]