我国宏观投资效率实证研究  

Empirical Research on the Macro Investment Efficiency

作　　者：陈张杭健 王力[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学金融学院,安徽蚌埠233000

出　　处：《安徽科技学院学报》2015年第4期108-112,共5页Journal of Anhui Science and Technology University

基　　金：教育部人文社科一般项目(11YJC790180);安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目(CXJJ2014048)

摘　　要：自改革开放以来,投资一直是拉动经济增长的重要因素,宏观投资效率的提高是经济增长的重要前提。文章摒弃传统测算投资效率的方法,通过构造多项式分布滞后模型(PDL模型)来估计投资对GDP的产出弹性,以此衡量我国宏观投资效率,并利用Chow断点检验将我国宏观投资效率划分为三个阶段,对不同阶段分别构造PDL模型,根据参数估计结果,我国宏观投资效率大致经历了U型反转。针对实证研究结果,提出改善宏观投资效率的几点对策建议。The investment has been an important factor in economic growth since the policy of reform and opening up has been put into effect. This paper constructs polynomial distributed lag model（ PDL model） to estimate the output elasticity of the investment to GDP to measure the macro investment efficiency instead of the traditional investment efficiency measurement method,and macro investment efficiency will be divided into three stages by using the Chow breakpoint test,and constructing PDL model to different stages respectively,according to the results of parameter estimation. The macro investment efficiency roughly experienced a U turn. Finally,according to the empirical research results,the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to improve the macro investment efficiency.

关 键 词：投资效率 PDL模型 Chow断点检验 

分 类 号：F014.31[经济管理—政治经济学]