中国煤炭产业生命周期模型构建与发展阶段判定  

Construction and development stage decision model of coal industry life cycle in China

作　　者：王云[1,2] 朱宇恩[3] 张军营[1] 王冰[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学博士后流动站,武汉430074 [2]山西省社会科学院能源经济研究所,太原030006 [3]山西大学环境与资源学院,太原030006

出　　处：《资源科学》2015年第10期1881-1890,共10页Resources Science

基　　金：山西经济社会发展重大研究课题(ZD201409);山西省哲学社会科学“十二五”规划课题(2014ZG03);国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2010CB227003);山西大学本科生科研训练计划资助项目(201510108005)

摘　　要：客观判断煤炭产业生命周期所处阶段,对于中国煤炭产业的可持续发展和有针对性地制定相应政策措施具有重要意义。本文依据中国经济发展阶段和煤炭产业发展现状,运用产业周期相关理论,将龚柏兹曲线定量分析法与计算判断法、经验对比法两种判别法相结合,构建煤炭产业生命周期模型并进行实证应用,通过煤炭资源与产业规模维度、煤炭产业结构和组织维度、煤炭产业技术结构和效率维度、政府角色维度综合判定中国煤炭产业正处于产业生命周期形成期向成长期发展的"过渡阶段",这一阶段中国煤炭产业正在进入一个重大调整期和转型期,随着能源生产与利用由"变革"到"革命"的转变,煤炭全方位综合清洁高效利用技术的突破、推广和应用以及煤炭管理方式创新,未来中国煤炭产业将进入快速成长期。The coal industry is a pillar of the energy industry and very important in the Chineseeconomy and social development. The coal industry of China developed some new characteristicsafter the‘golden ten years＇ period,and the objective judgement for coal life-cycle stage is of greatsignificance for the sustainable development of China＇s coal industry. Adopting relevant theories ofindustry cycle,and combining the Gompertz-curve model with two methods（calculation andjudgement method,empirical method of contrast）,based on the status quo of China＇s economy andcoal industry we built a coal industry life-cycle model and conducted empirical application. Byanalyzing four dimensions（coal resources and industrial scale,coal industry structure andorganization,coal industry technology structure and efficiency dimension,and the government＇srole）,11 indexes and three judgment methods,we infer that the coal industry in China hasexperienced a transition period of the industry life cycle and transforming from formation period to agrowth period. This means that the coal industry＇s reform entered the crucial period and deep waterarea,the period is also in a major adjustment and transformation period. There are three typicalcharacters：the transition stage of price growth rate,the throes of structural adjustment and theovercapacity digestion phase. This implies that the coal industry wills re-alignment around price fora long period as resources and location advantage gradually disappear in China. With energyproduction and use trend changing from transform to revolution,technology breakthroughs,popularization and application of coal management innovation and effective application of the cleancoal technology,China＇s coal industry will enter rapid growth. The government should develop manydiverse economic policies and measures and promote coal industry transformation and upgrading.

关 键 词：煤炭产业 生命周期模型 革命 发展阶段 中国 

分 类 号：F426.21[经济管理—产业经济]