1961-2010年黄淮海流域旱涝时空变化特征  

Temporal and spatial variation in drought and floods in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin from 1961 to 2010

作　　者：曹永强[1] 曹阳[1] 徐丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,大连116029

出　　处：《资源科学》2015年第10期2068-2077,共10页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51279072;51579126);国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB951102)

摘　　要：本文选取标准化降水指数（SPI）,以黄淮海流域145个气象站点1961-2010年逐日降水资料为基础,选取旱涝频率和旱涝范围作为评价指标,结合morlet小波分析法和经验正交分解函数（EOF）,从时间和空间两个方面对黄淮海流域旱涝变化特征进行分析。结果显示：研究时段内,黄淮海流域气候总体呈暖干化趋势,除中度干旱主周期为10年外,其余各级干旱、洪涝范围的主周期分别为20~25年、25~33年,另外除极度洪涝外,其余各级旱涝的突变年份均在1977-1978年左右;空间上,流域内洪涝频率总体上低于干旱频率,在大尺度气候异常影响下,黄河、海河流域旱涝变化基本同步,淮河流域与其它两流域旱涝变化相反。此外,受纬度和季风气候等因素的综合作用,流域内旱涝变化呈纬向分布特征。Based on daily precipitation data for 145 meteorological stations in the Huang-Huai River Basin over the last 50 years（1961-2010）,we selected the Standardized Precipitation Index（SPI）,the frequency and range of droughts and floods,and combined morlet wavelet analysis and Empirical Orthogonal Function（EOF）to analyze characteristics of droughts and floods. The results show that,on time,the basin had a trend of warm and dry in the last 50 years. The basin has experienced four phases,1961-1977 was a wet period and the basin was flooded overall. From1978-1985 was a normal period,in addition,flood event occurred in 1983,the rest area around zero. From 1986-2002 was a dry period,the SPI index value was almost less than 0. The basin was in drought status overall. From 2003-2010 was a transition period,after the moderate flood event in2003. The drought situation improved,the SPI index was gradually within the normal range. On time,the range of moderate droughts presented a major period of 10 years,other range of droughts presented a major period of 20~25 years;the range of flood gradually reduced. The mutation point of four kinds of range of drought and the range of moderate floods,moderate flood and severe floods were 1977 to 1978. The range of extreme floods is gradually expanding,but not notable. On space,flood frequencies were lower than drought frequencies in the study area,changes in the Haihe River Basin and Yellow River Basin were basic synchronization;changes in the Huaihe River Basin were contrast. Because of the combined effects of latitude and monsoon factors,changes in the study area were zonal and showed an anti-phase change at a north-south latitude of 37°.

关 键 词：SPI EOF 旱涝 时空变化 黄淮海流域 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]