三峡库区龙河流域水沙关系驱动因子贡献率分析  

Contribution rate of driving factors on the rainfall-sediment relationship of Longhe River watershed in the Three Gorges Reservoir region

作　　者：刘惠英[1] 高强[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]南昌工程学院水利与生态学院,南昌330099 [2]河海大学环境学院,南京210098 [3]长江科学院水土保持研究所,武汉430010

出　　处：《中国水土保持科学》2015年第5期1-8,共8页Science of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家科技部重大专项资助项目"水库型流域水质安全面源污染特征分析"(2012ZX07503-002-03);国家自然科学基金项目"基于水资源系统演变不确定性的水资源短缺风险评估"(51309129);江西省土壤侵蚀与防治重点实验室开放基金"赣江上游水沙时空演变及其对植被恢复的响应"(JXSB201303)

摘　　要：为揭示三峡库区输沙量急剧减小过程中,自然因素和人类活动的相对贡献率,以库区腹心地带的龙河流域为研究对象,利用1963—2010年流域日降雨和年输沙资料,借助通用土壤流失方程、降雨侵蚀力简易模型和Pettitt检验等方法,计算流域年降雨量、年降雨侵蚀力和年输沙量的变化趋势和突变,并以降雨侵蚀力为自然因素代表,采用双累积曲线法分析自然因素和人类活动在龙河流域水沙关系变化中的相对贡献率。结果表明:以1963—1981年为基准期,在1982—1990年、1991—1999年和2000—2010年3个时段,人类活动对龙河流域水沙关系变化的贡献率分别为106.5%、78.4%和67.8%;以降雨量作为自然因子时,1982—1990年、1991—1999年和2000—2010年3个时段人类活动对龙河流域水沙关系变化的贡献率则为99.7%、97.1和85.9%。研究表明,水土保持和水利工程建设等人类活动对龙河流域输沙量变化影响显著,研究结果对于准确评价流域水土保持效益具有重要的指导意义。In order to elucidate the contribution rate of remarkable decline of sediment load in the Three Gorges Reservoir region,this study took the Longhe River watershed,the center of the Three Gorges Reservoir in the upper Yangtze River basin,as an example,revealed the changing trends and mutation points of annual precipitation,rainfall erosivity and sediment load from 1963 to 2010 with the help of universal soil loss equation,simplified model of rainfall erosivity and Pettitt test. The contribution rate of the human intervention to increasing sediment was analyzed when the rainfall erosivity was taken as the indicator of natural factor in whole period with double cumulative curve method. The result showed that there were some mutation points of annual precipitation in 1982,sediment load in 1990 and rainfall erosivity in 2000,respectively. Using the double accumulative curve based on rainfall erosivity vs.sediment,the whole period was divided into four phases： 1963-1981,1982-1990,1991-1999 and2000-2010. The result also showed that the contribution rates of human activity to increasing sedimentin the Long River watershed during 1982-1990 and decreasing sediment during 1991-1999 and 2000-2010 were obtained based on the period of 1963-1981. The contribution rates of the human intervention were 106. 5% during 1982-1990,78. 4% during 1991-1999 and 67. 8% during 2000-2010,compared to that during 1963-1981. While taking rainfall as the natural factor,the contribution rates of human intervention to increasing sediment in the three periods mentioned above were 99. 7%,97. 1%and 85. 9% compared with that during 1963-1981. Our research proves that human activities such as conservation of water and soil,and water conservancy project,have a significant impact on rainfallsediment relationship at the Longhe River watershed. The result is useful in correctly evaluating the benefit of of soil and water conservation measures in the similar watersheds.

关 键 词：水沙关系 龙河流域 人类活动贡献率 降雨侵蚀力 双累积曲线 

分 类 号：S157[农业科学—土壤学] TV122[农业科学—农业基础科学]