丝绸之路经济带经济发展因果链分析  

Causality Chain Analysis on the Economic Development in Silk Road Economic Belt

作　　者：姚宇[1,2] 李忠民[1] 夏德水[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学国际商学院 [2]陕西师范大学哲学博士后科研流动站

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2015年第11期19-24,共6页Research on Economics and Management

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学发展报告项目"中国关中--天水经济区发展报告"(10JBG008);陕西师范大学中央高校基本科研专项资金项目(14SZYB18)

摘　　要：本文采用LYQ模型分析中国丝绸之路经济带上交通基础设施投入与地区经济产出之间的动态关系,基于经济一体化推进经济增长过程构造逻辑因果链:交通基础设施(先行投入,道路联通因素)—运输(货物往来,物流运通因素)—贸易(经济往来,贸易畅通因素)—经济增长(发展目标,经济一体化)。实证分析得出结论,2003—2013年道路联通因素是推动经济带经济发展的主要因素,贸易畅通因素发挥了重要作用、并且表现为未来驱动经济带经济发展的关键因素,物流运通因素对经济带经济发展贡献为负,物流业结构调整必要且可行。Based on the LYQ model ,this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between transportation infrastructure and economic growth in Silk Road Economic Belt .According to the process of economic integration , causality chain is constructed as follows：infrastructure （ early investment ,road connectivity factor ）-transportation （ exchange of goods ,logistics smooth factor）-trade（economic communication,trade facilitation factor）-economic growth（target,economic integration）. With reference to data from 2003 to 2013 in Silk Road Economic Belt ,the empirical results show that road connectivity is the principal factor of economic growth ,trade facilitation plays an important role and shows a great potential in future ,while logistics smooth factor shows a negative contribution to economic growth ,which is necessary to adjust its structure .

关 键 词：道路联通 经济增长 丝绸之路经济带 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]