我国工业化、城镇化与环境经济集聚的时空演化  

The Space-Time Evolution Analysis of Chinese Industrialization, Urbanization and Environmental-Economic Agglomeration

作　　者：刘满凤[1] 谢晗进 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学协同创新中心,中国江西南昌330013 [2]江西财经大学信息管理学院,中国江西南昌330013

出　　处：《经济地理》2015年第10期21-28,共8页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71263020);江西省科技落地计划项目(KJLD12064)

摘　　要：为测度在工业化和城镇化进程中集聚带来的正效应和负效应,提出了环境经济一致性指数。环境经济一致性指数的时空演化说明,随着时间的推移,集聚的负效应逐渐增大,正效应逐渐减弱;而空间的演变是东中西部呈梯度状,集聚的正效应减弱,负效应增强。环境经济一致性指数的门槛效应模型检验结果显示,当财政支出占GDP比重小于19.2409时,在工业化与城镇化进程中,市场效应起主导作用;介于19.2409与20.6205之间呈现的是政府与市场并驾齐驱,双轮驱动现象;大于20.6205时是政府起主导作用。因此,中西部地区应该更多地发挥市场的调控作用,而东部地区则更多地应该发挥政府的调控作用。The process of industrializing and urbanizing brings the agglomeration of industry and economy, which also leads to pollution agglomeration. In order to measure the positive effect and negative effect in the process of industrialization and urbanization agglomeration, this paper has put forward the environmental economic consistency index. The space-time evolution of the environmental economic consistency index shows that as time goes on, the negative effects of agglomeration increases gradually, and the positive effect decreases. The space evolution shows a gradient from the east to the midland, and final to the west with the positive effect of agglomeration is weakening and the negative effect is enhancing. The model testing results of the threshold effect of the environmental economic consistency index showed that when the proportion of expenditure in local GDP is less than 19.2409, in the process of local industrialization and urbanization, the market effect plays a dominated role; when it is between 19.2409 and 20.6205, the government and the market are advancing in line, forming a two-wheel driving phenomenon; when it is more than 20.6205, the government plays a dominated role. Therefore, in the central and western regions, the market should play more roles in the regulation while in the eastern regions it＇ s the government that should play more roles.

关 键 词：新型工业化 新型城镇化 经济集聚 污染集聚 一致性指数 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F291[经济管理—国民经济]