镇江市土地利用格局演变与情景模拟  

Land Use Pattern Evolution and Scene Simulation in Zhenjiang

作　　者：张荣天[1] 焦华富[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院,中国安徽芜湖241003

出　　处：《经济地理》2015年第10期156-162,共7页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41171144);安徽师范大学研究生科研创新重点项目(2014yks084zd)

摘　　要：以镇江市为例,运用动态度模型、转移矩阵分析1994—2012年土地利用格局的演变特征,并设定情景方案利用改进的CLUE-S模型对区域未来演变趋势进行模拟预测。结果表明:1994年以来镇江市土地利用呈现出"缓慢提升—快速上升—稳步下降"动态演变特征;土地利用类型转移主要表现为耕地向建设用地、林地和其他农用地向园地景观类型的转化;改进的CLUE-S模型在300m×300m尺度上最佳,耕地保护情景下,限制区内基本农田用途转化,制约了建设用地的适度扩张,预计到2030年耕地比重增加4.35%,主要分布在镇东平原区;经济发展情景下,建设用地空间扩张最为显著,预计到2030年面积增加15.26%,主要侵占各建成区周边大量耕地;生态保护情景下,预计到2030年林地、水域等生态保护用地面积增加,主要分布在镇西丘陵区。分情景的模拟方案为区域土地利用调整与优化提供科学依据。Based on TM/ETM＋ remote sensing data in Zhenjiang from 1994 to 2012, using the dynamic model and transfer matrix model to analyze the characteristics of the land use pattern evolution since 1994, this paper set the scene schemes and used the modified CLUE-S model to simulate and forecast the evolution trend in the future. The results showed that： the land utilization was divided into three stages： a slowly lift （1994-2000）, a rapid rise （2000-2006） and a steady decline （2006-2012）. In the land utilization shift, cultivated land were mainly transformed to construction land, and woodland and other agricultural land were transformed to garden landscape type. The optimal size of the modified CLUE-S model was 300m x 300m; 1）under the cultivated land protection, the conversion of the basic farmland in the restricted areas restrained the appropriate expansion of the construction land, and by 2030, the proportion of cultivated land will increase by 4.35%, mainly located in the eastern plain areas; 2）under the economic development, the construction land expansion was the most notable, and by 2030 its acreage will increase by 15.26%, occupying a large number of cultivated land surrounding the built-up areas; 3）under the ecological protection, land for ecological protection such as woodland and waters will increase, distributing in the western hilly areas. Simulations under different scenes provided theoretical and practical reference for the adjustment and optimization of the regional land utilization.

关 键 词：土地利用 格局演变 情景模拟 镇江市 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]