货币政策、成本效应与通货膨胀:理论模型与中国经验  

Monetary Policy, Cost Effect and Inflation:Theoretical Model and China's Experience

作　　者：徐小君[1] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学经济与金融学院,福建泉州362021

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2015年第10期11-20,共10页Journal Of Financial Development Research

基　　金："华侨大学高层次人才科研启动费项目";项目编号:13SKBS204

摘　　要：为考察货币政策冲击对通货膨胀的影响方向和大小,本文首先在动态随机一般均衡框架内构建企业的营运资本模型,货币政策通过改变企业营运资本的融资成本进而影响物价变动。理论模型的数值模拟显示,货币政策冲击导致通货膨胀变化的大小和特征取决于价格与通胀率粘性系数。进而利用符号约束SVAR模型对中国宏观经济数据进行了计量分析,经验研究发现我国商品价格粘性较强,利率上调的紧缩性货币政策可能导致物价的上升;通货膨胀形成机制中包含了较强的预期成分,货币扩张冲击产生的通货膨胀效应时间提前且反应程度较大。To investigate the direction and magnitude of the impact of monetary policy on inflation, this paper firstly build the working capital model under the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. The monetary poli- cy causes the change of price through affecting the working capital financing costs. The numerical simulation of the the- oretical model shows that due to the monetary policy shock, the size and characteristics of inflation depends on the stickiness coefficient of price and the inflation rate. The paper then uses the SVAR model constrained by signs to do an econometric analysis on China＇ s macroeconomic data. The empirical research finds that China＇ s commodity price shows a stronger degree of stickiness, the tightened monetary with rising interest rates may lead to the increase in pric- es. Inflation formation mechanism includes the component of stronger expectations. Inflationary impact of the monetary expansion was generated earlier with a greater degree of reaction.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 货币政策 成本渠道 符号约束 SVAR模型 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]