金融危机及其应对政策对我国宏观经济的影响——基于金融CGE模型的模拟分析  

Impacts of the Global Financial Crisis and Responsive Policies for China:A Financial CGE Analysis

作　　者：范小云[1] 张景松[1] 王博[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学金融学院,天津300350

出　　处：《金融研究》2015年第9期50-65,共16页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(14AZD032);教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(14JJD790030);中国滨海金融协同创新中心课题"金融创新与宏观金融稳定"的资助

摘　　要：本文通过构建中国金融CGE模型,编制中国金融SAM表,模拟了金融危机及其应对政策对中国宏观经济的影响,并对政策效果进行了后验式评价。研究结果表明,大规模投资对增加企业收入、促进GDP增长等效果明显,减税政策能明显改善居民福利,虽然调整利率同样可以促进经济的恢复但效果并不十分明显。当经济政策能够提高居民边际消费倾向时,经济升温的步伐将加快。但应对金融危机的刺激政策存在着引发通货膨胀、不能有效刺激出口等风险,所以需要相关后续配套政策对宏观经济进行进一步调整。This paper simulates the impacts of the global financial crisis and responsive policies on the macro economy of China by building financial CGE model and establishing financial SAM. Besides, the corresponding comments and advice are given aiming at the conclusions. According to the resuhs, in all the three simulated situations, global financial crisis does have great impact on the macro economy of China, making enormous downturn in total output, the demand for labor and the household welfare. While in the stimulation of the three policies, large - scale of investment has a significantly effect on company profits increase and GDP growth. Meanwhile the tax deduction policy could largely improve citizen welfare and the adjustment of interest could also promote the recovery of economy but the effects seem to be not quite obvious. When the policies could bring the increase of marginal propensity to consume, the economy tends to recover more quickly. But the risks of inflation and failure to stimulating export do exist when facing the financial crisis, so further adjustments on policies for macro economy remain to be made.

关 键 词：金融危机 金融可计算一般均衡模型 政策模拟 

分 类 号：F831.59[经济管理—金融学] F124