基于灰色系统理论对产业结构型综合发展系数的研究——以黑龙江省林业产业为例  

Research on Comprehensive Developmet Index of Industrial Structure Based on Grey System Theory——A Case Study on Forestry Industries in Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：刘延龙[1] 臧睿[1] 张滨[2] 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040 [2]东北林业大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2015年第30期263-265,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：灰色发展系数是灰色GM（1，1）模型的核心，在运用灰色GM（1，1）模型进行预测时，灰色发展系数一般为定值，然而在实际情况中发展系数往往是变动的，其中一个重要的影响因素就是产业结构的变动。该研究通过将次级产业发展系数进行产值加权，得到灰色产业结构型综合发展系数和灰色产业综合发展模型，并将其运用于黑龙江省林业产业发展分析与预测中，计算得出2013～2017年黑龙江省林业产业结构型综合发展系数分别为0．2431、0．2593、0．276、0．2952、0．3149，并据此对其相应年份的林业总产值进行了预测，取得了良好的应用效果。研究表明，分析产业结构型综合发展系数使产业发展情况更能体现出产业结构的影响。Grey coefficient of development is the core of grey GM （ 1, 1 ） model. Under normal circumstances the development coefficient is constant value by the use of grey GM （ 1, 1 ） model to forecast. However, in fact, the development coefficient is fluctuant. One of the impor- tant influence factor is the change of industrial structure. The comprehensive developmet index of industrial structure and comprehensive devel- opmet model of grey industries of foresty industries in Heilongjiang is obtained through output weighted coefficient of secondary industry devel- opment, calculated that the comprehensive developmet index of industrial structure of foresty industries in Heilongjiang from 2013 to 2017 are 0.243 1,0.259 3, 0.276 7, 0.295 2, 0.314 9. Then the forestry output value in the corresponding year has carried based on these data and achieves a good application effect. The study shows that the analysis of the comprehensive developmet index of industrial structure can reflect the influence of industrial structure better.

关 键 词：产业结构变动 产业结构型综合发展系数 灰色产业综合发展模型 林业产业 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学]