我国省际出游市场潜力时空差异与反季开发策略研究  

A Research on the Spatial-temporal Differences of the Potentials of inter-Provincial Travel Market and Anti-seasonal Development

作　　者：冯学钢[1] 黄和平[1] 万田户[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学商学院,上海200241

出　　处：《旅游科学》2015年第3期1-14,共14页Tourism Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"我国反季旅游市场潜力的区域差异与开发策略研究"(12AJY008);国家社会科学基金青年项目"高铁时代区域旅游产业要素配置研究"(11CJY082)

摘　　要：时间约束、经济约束和出游意识是影响出游决策的3个基本维度。以此为出发点,结合现有文献与研究成果,本文对全国31省市自治区1出游率影响因素进行显著性识别,在控制时间约束因素、经济约束因素的同时,全面捕捉时空两个维度影响出游率的信息;本文还分析了一直以来被学界所忽视的客源地气候因素在出游率变化过程所起的关键作用,并在实证分析中得到验证;利用实证所得结果,本文将反季开发理念应用于出游市场,构建反季开发潜力指数,定量测度出游市场反季开发潜能,为出游市场(需求)的反季开发提供决策依据。Time constraints, financial constraints and travel consciousness are the three basic dimensions affecting travel decisions. Based on this,as well as on the existing findings of researches,using the quarterly data of Travel Ratio from 2003 to 2012 and 863 valid questionnaires of Travel Motivation,this paper conducted a significant recognition of factors for 31 provinces. By controlling timeconstraints and financial constraints simultaneously,it fully captured the spatial-temporal information that affects the Travel Ratio,analyzed the climate factors which play a key role in the change process of Travel Ratio,which has been ignored by academic circles,and tested it in an empirical analysis. With the results,it applied the anti-seasonal philosophy in tourist market to build an anti-seasonal development index to make a quantitative estimation of its potentials in order to provide the anti-seasonal development of tourist market with a basis for making decisions.

关 键 词：出游率 气候舒适度 反季开发 纠偏DPD-LSDV模型 

分 类 号：F590.8[经济管理—旅游管理]