水电站大坝群安全应急管理协同度测度研究  

Study on synergy measurement of safety emergency management on dam group in hydropower station

作　　者：江新[1,2] 朱沛文 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]湖北省水电工程施工与管理重点实验室(三峡大学),湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2015年第10期133-140,共8页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51379110);水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室(三峡大学)开放基金项目(2014KSD05)

摘　　要：针对当前水电站大坝群安全应急管理缺乏主动协同而导致资源浪费的情形,提出基于网络层次分析法(ANP)和序参量法的安全应急管理协同度的测度。首先根据文献分析归纳水电站大坝群安全应急管理过程的协同关系,构建包括5个子系统和11个序参量以及33个二级指标的水电站大坝群安全应急管理协同度测度指标体系。其次借助超级决策软件确定各个指标的权重,最后采用序参量法对安全应急管理的预防、准备、响应和恢复4个环节进行协同度测度。将此方法用于国内某流域的梯级水电站大坝群。测度结果表明:该梯级水电站大坝群安全应急管理的响应和准备两个环节各子系统的协同度最高,系统总体的协同度较低,应采取优化措施以提高系统的协同程度。Aiming at the situation of resources waste caused by lacking of initiative synergy in safety emergency management on dam group of hydropower station,the synergy measurement of safety emergency management based on ANP and order parameter was put forward. The synergistic relationship of safety emergency management process for dam group of hydropower station was summarized based on literature analysis,and an index system for synergy measurement of safety emergency management on dam group in hydropower station was established,which included5 subsystem,11 order parameters and 33 secondary indexes. The weight of each index was determined by using super decision software,and by using the order parameter method,the synergy measurement was conducted on 4 links of safety emergency management,including prevention,preparedness,response and recovery. The method was applied on the dam group of cascade hydropower station in a domestic basin. The results showed that the synergy degrees of each subsystem in response and preparedness links of safety emergency management were the highest,while the synergy degree of overall system was low,so the optimization measures should be taken to improve the synergistic degree of the system.

关 键 词：安全应急 协同测度 序参量 网络层次分析法(ANP) 大坝群 

分 类 号：X92[环境科学与工程—安全科学]