工业结构变动对经济增长影响的实证分析——以重庆市涪陵区为例  

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Industrial Structure on Economic Growth

作　　者：洪业应 

机构地区：[1]中共重庆市涪陵区委党校,重庆408000

出　　处：《河南科学》2015年第10期1873-1876,共4页Henan Science

基　　金：2014年度中共重庆市委党校校级项目(CQDX2014B-08)

摘　　要：选取重庆市涪陵区为例,结合涪陵重化工业发展趋势,运用计量经济学研究方法中协整检验和Granger因果关系检验探讨了工业结构与经济增长的关系,并进行实证分析.结果表明,区域经济增长与重工业、轻工业之间具有较高的相关性,重工业对涪陵区经济增长贡献更大,工业结构与经济增长之间存在单向的因果关系.最后,提出淘汰落后产能,实现工业可持续发展;依靠技术创新,促进产业结构调整升级等方面的对策建议.With the Fuling District in Chongqing as an example, combined with the development trend of Fuling heavy chemical industry, the econometric research methods cointegration test and Granger causality test were used to investigate the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth empirical analysis. Results show that the correlations are high between regional economic growth and heavy industry, light industry. Heavy industry of Fuling District economic has larger contributions to the economic growth. There is a one-way causal relationship between industrial structure and economic growth. Finally, the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for eliminating backward production capacity, realizing the sustainable development of industry, relying on technological innovation, and promoting industrial structure adjustment and upgrading.

关 键 词：工业结构 经济增长 GRANGER因果关系 涪陵区 重庆市 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]