人口出生率的影响因素与政策选择：1994～2014年  

Factors and Policy Choices of the Population Birth Rate： 1994～2014

作　　者：任栋[1] 李萍[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学统计学院,四川成都611130 [2]西南财经大学经济学院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《改革》2015年第10期23-31,共9页Reform

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"统计指数理论的创新研究"(批准号:11BTJ010)

摘　　要：对1994～2014年的人口出生率及相关指标之间的关系进行分析研究,发现非线性回归模型对我国人口出生率及相关指标有较好的拟合效果。对我国人口出生率及各主要影响因素的非线性回归分析显示：经济增长和居民文化消费水平的提高会导致居民的生育观念发生深刻的变化,从而导致人口出生率持续下降,由此将会出现劳动力供应不足、社会老龄化、独生子女性格异化等后果。应进一步调整计划生育政策,全面放开二胎生育,保持经济适度快速增长,进一步提高居民的文化教育水平和社会保障水平,适度控制物价增长。By analyzing the relationship between the birth rate and the relative index of the population from 1994 to2014, we find that the nonlinear regression model has a good fitting effect on the population birth rate and the related index. The nonlinear regression analysis of the population birth rate and the main influencing factors shows that the increase of economic growth and the consumption level of the residents will lead to a profound change in the birth rate, this will result in the shortage of labor supply, the aging of society, the alienation of the only child ＇s character and so on. We should further adjustment the family planning policy, full liberalization of two births, and maintain an appropriate rapid economic growth, further improve the residents of cultural and educational level and the level of social security, moderately control the increase in prices.

关 键 词：人口出生率 经济增长率 二胎生育 

分 类 号：F326.475.5[经济管理—产业经济]