基于动态广义线性模型的猪场繁殖监测系统  

Breeding surveillance system in pig farm based on dynamic generalized linear model

作　　者：高翔[1] 王欢[1] 秦宏宇[1] 肖建华[1] 王洪斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学兽医外科教研室,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2015年第20期194-198,共5页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD10A16-03);哈尔滨市科技创新人才研究专项资金项目(2007RFXXN004)

摘　　要：随着标准化养殖及人工授精的普及,胎次和授精次数已成为影响猪群繁殖的最主要因素。为了将胎次和授精次数纳入猪场的繁殖管理,该研究设计并实现了基于动态广义线性模型的新型猪场繁殖监测系统。使用结果表明,纳入胎次及授精次数后的监测系统运行稳定,实现了对影响因子取值的自动更新并可以对异常繁殖情况做出警报,误报率小于2%。该研究不但提高了猪场繁殖信息监测的精度,同时为进一步分析与挖掘猪场生产数据中的潜在信息,提高利用效率提供了参考。With the popularity of standardized breeding and artificial insemination, fetal time and insemination number have become the main factors influencing the reproduction of swine herd. In the foregoing methods, a simple average of the conception rate has been used for the monitoring of breeding, which is not precise because it is highly dependent on the age structure and other influence factors of the herd. An appropriate monitoring system for breeding must be adjusted for these systematic effects, being in a position to capture correlations between fetal time and insemination number, and developing over time. In order to improve the accuracy of the fetal time and insemination number monitoring in pig breeding, this paper developed and implemented a new breeding surveillance system in pig farm based on the dynamic generalized linear model. The dynamic generalized linear model is suitable for statistical data in accordance with the binomial distribution. It includes an observation equation and a system equation. The observation equation associates observation variables and parameters, and the system equation indicates the change process of impact factor over time. The key observation used throughout the system is ＂farrowing rate＂. Since ＂conception rate＂ has to be measured indirectly through the percentage of sows that return to oestrus 21 days after service, or based on pregnancy diagnosis at about 30 days post-service. The farrowing rate is a more reliable numeric indicator of the successful conception, and it is defined as the total number of sows farrowing divided by the total number of sows mating, and expressed as a percentage. Through the analysis of historical data of the target pig farm, we found that there are no significant differences in farrowing rate during the first 5 parities of sows. From the sixth parity, farrowing rate shows a significant downward trend. We made a negative slope on behalf of this downward tendency in farrowing rate. Besides, there is a kind of data representing the destruct

关 键 词：监测 模型 动态广义线性模型 产仔率 胎次 授精次数 

分 类 号：S818.5[农业科学—畜牧学]