安徽省温度与心脑血管疾病死亡关系的广义叠加模型分析  

The Use of Generalized Additive Model in Association of Temperature and Cardiovascular Mortality in Anhui

作　　者：杨勋凤 李连发[1] 王劲峰[1] 黄季夏[3,4] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]北京林业大学精准林业北京市重点实验室,北京100083 [4]北京林业大学林学院,北京100083

出　　处：《地球信息科学学报》2015年第11期1388-1394,共7页Journal of Geo-information Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41471376;41171344)

摘　　要：本研究探讨了安徽省巢湖市、雨山区和天长市的温度与心脑血管疾病死亡之间的关系。从中国疾病预防控制中心收集2008-2011年这3个城市（区）居民的心脑血管疾病日死亡资料,采用Possion广义叠加模型研究了温度与心脑血管疾病死亡之间的暴露-反应曲线关系,并以最适宜温度为参照,分别估计高温和低温情况下气温每上升或下降1°C,对应的心脑血管疾病死亡人数上升的百分比。结果显示,3个城市心脑血管疾病死亡与温度之间的暴露-反应曲线为J-型,即存在一个最适宜温度,心脑血管疾病的死亡风险在该最适宜温度达到最低,巢湖市、雨山区、天长市的最适宜温度分别为29.0°C、26.6°C、26.9°C。当温度低于最适宜温度时,温度每降低1°C,巢湖市、雨山区和天长市的心脑血管疾病死亡人数分别增加1.06%（95%CI：0.39%~1.74%）、2.18%（95%CI：1.56%~2.81%）、0.89%（95%CI：-0.11%~1.90%）;当温度高于最适宜温度时,温度每升高1°C,3城市的心脑血管患者死亡人数分别增加2.92%（95%CI：-2.19%~8.30%）、4.87%（95%CI：-0.11%~10.10%）、2.06%（95%CI：-2.57%~6.91%）。研究结果表明,低温和高温均会对安徽省城市居民的心脑血管疾病死亡产生影响,且温度对心脑血管疾病死亡的影响还存在地域差异。因此,在研究温度对心脑血管疾病死亡的影响、制定相关的防御措施时,都需因地制宜地进行分析。The objectives of this study were to estimate the effects of temperature on cardiovascular mortality in three cities of Anhui Province from 2008 to 2011, including Chaohu city, Yushan district of Ma’anshan city and Tianchang city. A separate Poisson generalized additive model（GAM） was fitted on a daily basis to explore the relationship between cardiovascular mortality and temperature for each city. The model used smooth functions to model the nonlinear effects of temperature and humidity on cardiovascular mortality, and to take control for the seasonal factor using the calendar time variable. A J- shaped relationship between cardiovascular mortality and temperature was observed for each city, indicating that an increasing trend at high or low temperature condition is associated with an increase in cardiovascular mortality. The threshold temperatures were 29.0°C, 26.6°C and26.9° C for Chaohu city, Yushan district and Tianchang city, respectively. The percentage increase in cardiovascular mortality for Chaohu city, Yushan district and Tianchang city were 1.06%（95% CI： 0.39%-1.74%）, 2.18%（95% CI： 1.56%~2.81%） and 0.89%（95% CI：-0.11%~1.90%） respectively, with a decrease of 1°C below the threshold temperature. And the percentage increase were 2.92%（95% CI：- 2.19% ~8.30%）, 4.87%（95%CI：-0.11%~10.10%） and 2.06%（95%CI：-2.57%~6.91%） respectively, with an increase of 1°C above the threshold temperature. The effects of temperature on cardiovascular mortality are heterogeneous across cities,which suggest that preventive steps or public health programs should take regional differences into consideration.

关 键 词：心脑血管疾病死亡 温度 广义叠加模型 安徽省 

分 类 号：R54[医药卫生—心血管疾病] R743[医药卫生—内科学]