专家可信度在山区公路建设安全评价中的应用研究  

On Application of Expert Credibility Effect in The Risk Assessment of The Mountainous Highway Construction

作　　者：李婷婷[1] 焦莉[1] 史静[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西交通职业技术学院公路工程系,西安710021

出　　处：《西南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第10期154-159,共6页Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目(14JK1068)

摘　　要：根据山区公路建设特点,结合依托工程构建了具有5个指标的风险因素安全评价指标体系,并在3个级别的专家中开展问卷调查,进行评价指标因素间重要程度判断以及对于5个等级的风险评价集的隶属度评判,引入专家可信度影响并开展模糊评价,最终确定山区公路建设的风险程度.结果表明:安全评价指标体系、专家分级与风险评价集符合山区公路建设风险评价要求,专家个体针对安全评价指标的重要程度判断和风险度评判具有明显差别,开展专家可信度分析是在考虑个体影响基础上形成统一的量化结果的有效方法,结合专家可信度分析的模糊层次分析法可有效解决山区公路建设风险评价相关问题.Based on the characteristics of the mountainous highway construction and related project,an indicator system of evaluation that contains 5risk elements has been built up.Survey questionnaires are conducted in 3levels of experts to decide the weighting coefficient of the risk elements,and determine their membership grade to the 5level risk evaluation set.The expert credibility effect is considered in the risk evaluation,and the risk degree of mountainous highway construction is fixed.Some results show that the indicator system,expert class and risk evaluation set have fulfilled the need of the mountainous highway construction.The assessment result of the weighting coefficient and membership grade of individual expert is different.Expert credibility analysis is an effective method to bond the individual judgment to form integrated quantizing result.The analytic hierarchy process combined with expert credibility analysis is sufficient to resolve the relevant risk evaluation problems in the mountainous highway construction.

关 键 词：专家可信度 山区公路建设 风险因素 指标体系 风险评价 

分 类 号：U415.12[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]