城市化和能源消费的门槛效应分析与预测  

Threshold Effects Analysis and Prediction for China's Urbanization and Energy Consumption

作　　者：曹孜[1] 陈洪波[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院城市环境所,北京100028

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2015年第11期59-68,共10页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"城市化进程中气候变化与调控机制可持续发展研究"(编号:4077120)

摘　　要：能源是推动城市化、工业化进程的重要物质动力,城市化、工业化也成为拉动能源消费增长的关键因素,尤其是处于快速城市化阶段的国家,城市化与能源消费有更为密切的联系。城市化进程中产业结构、居民消费模式、城市规划布局均存在阶段性变化的特点,因此能源消费也存在相应的门槛效应并呈现阶段性的增长。本文在总结城市化过程中影响能源消费的增加因素-产业扩张、消费升级、动力交通、设施建设,抑制因素-技术进步、能源结构优化、人口密度增加、设施共享的基础上,依据我国城市化与能源消费的变化特征,采用门限模型研究城市化、居民收入水平、产业结构、人口密度对于人均能源消费的门槛效应。搜寻在城市化过程中各因素对于能源消费影响的转折点并分析其阶段性变化特征,然后结合脉冲函数图研究城市化过程中各变量对于能源消费的即期冲击。最后依据产业结构、收入水平、城市化的变化趋势对能源消费进行预测分析。研究发现城市化对于能源消费的影响具有明显的阶段性,分别以城市化和人均收入为门槛变量,超过门槛点后城市化对能源消费的拉动作用依次上升;以工业化作为门槛变量,城市化对能源消费的影响呈现先上升后下降的态势。脉冲相应的结果显示:城市化的单位变动对能源消费的冲击具有一定的滞后性且持续性较强,收入增加对能源消费的拉动最为迅速但后期持续性较弱,人口密度对人均能源消费具有负向冲击。采用非线性函数的预测结果表明:未来10年内我国仍面临较大的能源消费压力,需要通过制定科学的城市建设规划、促进产业结构优化升级等途径控制城市化过程中的能源消费。Energy is an important material impetus for urbanization and industrialization, while urbanization and industrialization are also key factors that stimulate the energy consumption increase for especially the countries in rapid urbanization process, where the urbanization and energy consumption are highly related. The industry structure ／ consumption mode of residents ／ urban plan and distribution present staged changing trends in the process of urbanization, leading to the threshold points of energy consumption, which also exhibits staged increase. Based on such impetus factors as industry expansion, consumption increase, motorized transportation, facilities construction as well as the holding factors including technical advancement, optimal energy structure, population density increase, utilities shares that impact on energy consumption in the process of urbanization, this paper employed threshold mode to search the key turning points for energy consumption and analyzed the relation between energy consumption and urbanization. Then this paper also researched the short-period influence of each variable upon energy consumption via pulse function. Lastly we predicted the energy consumption according to the change trend of industrial structure, income levels, and urbanization. In this paper, we found staged characteristics in the influence of urbanization upon energy consumption. Taking urbanization and income as threshold variables respectively, the driving strength of urbanization on energy consumption increases in turn; however taking industry to GDP as threshold variable, the driving effect increases firstly and then decreases. The standard impulse of urbanization on energy consumption has lag effect and is more durable; it presents negative impulse for population density to energy consumption. The results of non-linear prediction shows that in the next ten years, the pressure of high energy consumption will still remain. Therefore, it is urgent to take measures such as reasonable urban construction plan and

关 键 词：能源消费 城市化 门槛效应 脉冲函数 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]