中国人口年龄结构变动对能源消费的影响研究——基于省际动态面板数据的GMM分析  

Research on the Effects of Changes in the Age Structure of China's Population to Energy Consumption:Based on the Provincial Dynamic Panel Data by GMM

作　　者：张玉周[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南财经政法大学统计学院,河南郑州450002

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2015年第11期69-74,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"新世纪我国家庭结构的变迁研究"(编号:11BRK017);河南省哲学社会科学规划项目"河南工业化与新型城镇化协调发展研究"(编号:2014CJJ030);河南省软科学研究计划项目"河南省新型城镇化发展动力机制研究"(编号:142400410309)

摘　　要：人的生产者和消费者的双重身份以及人口结构的动态变化使得人口因素对能源消费的影响极其复杂,不同年龄结构的人口对能源消费会产生不同影响。文章通过将反映人口年龄结构变动的少儿抚养比、老年抚养比和总抚养比3个指标引入扩展的STIRPAT模型,基于我国30个省市区1996-2013年的面板数据,利用GMM法对我国人口年龄结构变动对能源消费的影响进行了实证分析,结果表明:少儿抚养比、总抚养比、前期能源消费、经济增长、居民消费等因素对我国能源消费均具有显著影响,老年抚养比对能源消费的影响暂时不显著,但随着人口老龄化的加剧其影响会逐步显现;少儿抚养比和总抚养比与能源消费反方向变动;前期能源消费对当期能源消费存在显著正影响;经济增长和居民消费与能源消费同方向变动;在所有影响能源消费的因素中,前期能源消费的作用最大,少儿抚养比和总抚养比变动对能源消费的影响已超过经济增长,正逐步成为影响能源消费的主要因素。基于此,文章提出应将人口年龄结构因素纳入相关政策视野,适时调整完善人口政策,根据人口年龄结构变动特征不断优化能源消费结构,加快促进经济增长方式转变,大力发展节能技术,逐步提高能源利用率等相关政策建议,以促进我国人口、资源、环境和经济社会的可持续发展。People are of dual identity of producers and consumers and population structure is with dynamic changes, which makes the influence of population on energy consumption is complexed. Different age structures of population have the different impacts on energy consumption. This paper introduces the variables of reflecting changes about population age structure including children＇ s dependency ratio, old dependency ratio and total dependency ratio into the extended STIRPAT model, and uses the GMM method to analyze the effect of changes in population age structure on energy consumption by the panel data of 30 provinces from 1996 to 2013. It reveals that ： children＇ s dependency ratio, elderly dependency ratio, pre-energy consumption, economy growth and resident consumption have significant impacts on China＇s energy consumption. The elderly dependency ratio on the energy consumption is not significant temporarily, but its effect will gradually become prominent with the aging of the population increasing. The children＇ s dependency ratio and the total dependency ratio change in the opposite direction energy consumption. The pre-energy consumption has significantly positive effect on current energy consumption. Economic growth and resident consumption change in the same direction to energy consumption. Pre-energy consumption plays the biggest role in affecting energy consumption. The changes of children＇ s dependency ratio and total depeney ratio exceeds the changes of economic growths, gradually becoming the main factors which influence the energy consumption. On this basis, this paper puts forward some suggestions that population age structure should be included in the relevant policies, and we should adjust the population policy, optimize energy consumption structure, accelerate the transformation of the mode of economy growth, develop energy-saving technologies, increase the energy efficiency gradually, etc., which will promote the sustainable development of population, resource, environment, economy and s

关 键 词：人口年龄结构 能源消费 面板数据 G MM 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]