山西某煤矿接尘工人煤工尘肺发病预测  

Prediction for incidence of coal workers' pneumoconiosis among dust-exposed workers in a coal mine in Shanxi province

作　　者：云翔[1] 孙志谦[2] 肖淑玉[3] 闫大培 蒋守芳[1] 宋子良 赵岩 沈福海[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北联合大学公共卫生学院,河北唐山063000 [2]中国煤矿工人北戴河疗养院 [3]唐山市疾病预防控制中心 [4]大同煤矿集团职业病防治院

出　　处：《中国公共卫生》2015年第11期1389-1392,共4页Chinese Journal of Public Health

摘　　要：目的预测山西某煤矿研究队列内接尘工人未来预期寿命内煤工尘肺的发病人数，确定发病危险人群。方法将该煤矿1970—2011年开始接尘的4771人作为研究对象，采用寿命表方法，分析不同开始接尘年代队列、不同工种队列的累计发病率及年平均发病率，预测健康接尘工人未来预期寿命内煤工尘肺发病人数。结果预测未来预期寿命内约有497人发病，其中1970-年代开始接尘工人约32人发病，1980-年代开始接尘工人约465人发病，1980-年代开始接尘工人发病率最高（11．17％）；各工种发病人数由高到低分别为掘进工约245人，采煤工178人，混合工64人，辅助工10人，掘进工发病率最高（75．85％）；发病人员主要集中在目前40～50岁人群，约324人发病；未来30年内约有416人发病，占总发病人数的83．70％。结论掘进工及1980年以后开始接尘的工人为尘肺高发人群，属于重点保护对象。Objective To predict the incidence number of coal workers＇ pneumoconiosis （CWP） in a cohort of dust- exposed workers in a coal mine in Shanxi province during a period of life expectancy and to identify the population at high risk of CWP. Methods We included 4 711 workers initially exposed to dust from 1970 to 2011 into the cohort. Life table method was adopted to analyze the cumulative incidence rate and the average annual incidence of CWP among the cohort members with different year of first dust exposure and types of work to predict the incidence number of CWP. Results There would be 497 CWP incidents during the period of life expectancy for the cohort members. There would be 32 and 465 CWP incidents in the workers initially exposed to dust from 1970 to 1979 and from 1980 and the workers exposed to dust from 1980 had the highest predicted CWP incidence（ 11.17% ）. The predictive CWP incidents are 245, 178,64, and 10 for the cohort members engaged in tunneling, mining, mixing, and auxiliary work, respectively during the period, with the highest CWP incidence rate （75.85 % ）among tunneling workers. The majority of CWP incidents （324） would occur in the cohort members now aged 40 - 50 years and there would be 416 CWP incidents within the next 30 years,accounting for 75.85% of total CWP incidents predicted. Conclusion The workers engaged in tunneling and exposed to dust from 1980 are groups at higher risk of CWP in the coal mine.

关 键 词：煤工尘肺 累计发病率 寿命表 预测 

分 类 号：R135[医药卫生—劳动卫生]