基于GA的广义模糊时间序列建模及其在旅游需求预测中的应用  

GA-based Generalized Fuzzy Time Series Modelling with Its Applications on Prediction of Tourism Requirement

作　　者：王庆林[1] 杨志辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]东华理工大学理学院,南昌330013

出　　处：《江西科学》2015年第5期635-641,665,共8页Jiangxi Science

基　　金：江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目(GJJ14469)

摘　　要：研究了基于遗传算法(genetic algorithm,GA)的广义模糊时间序列建模问题。为更好解决多决策变量问题,避免传统意义上的统计算法和模糊时间序列模型的缺陷,在遗传算法中加入染色体重组算子,得到一个改进的遗传算法,构建了一种基于改进遗传算法的广义模糊时间序列模型。最后,以我国黄山风景区游客人数预测为例,通过实证分析验证了该模型。与传统的模糊时间序列模型或者和其他方法结合而形成的混合模型相比,该模型可以避免在划分区间上的主观随意性并提高预测精确度。A genetic algorithm-based generalized fuzzy time series model is studied in this paper. To better tackle the problem with multi decision variables and avoid the defects of the traditional statistical algorithms and fuzzy time series model,a modified GA is investigated by supplying chromosome recombination operator in GA. Based the proposed modified GA,a generalized fuzzy time series model is developed in this paper. Finally,using the predicting for tourism requirement of Huangshan,the proposed model is verified by the empirical analysis. Compared with the traditional fuzzy time series models or the hybrid model,the proposed model can overcome the subjective randomness of partition interval and improve the accuracy of prediction.

关 键 词：广义模糊时间序列模型 遗传算法 旅游需求预测 

分 类 号：O159[理学—数学]