生态高危区预防性移民迁移意愿影响因素研究——基于甘肃定西地区4村落的调查  

Analysis on Influencing Factors of Preventive Migration Willingness in Ecologically High-risk Areas:Based on Survey at Four Villages in Dingxi City,Gansu Province

作　　者：刘呈庆[1] 魏玮[2] 李萱[3] 

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学山东省可持续发展研究中心 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 [3]环境保护部环境与经济政策研究中心

出　　处：《中国地质大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第6期22-29,167,共8页Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"三江源国家生态保护综合试验区建设的体制机制优化研究"(14XJY004);国家社会科学基金教育学一般课题"可持续发展教育理论的概念体系研究"(BAA110014);环境保护部项目"建立国家环境资产核算体系";农业部项目"西部地区农业生态补偿机制研究"

摘　　要：预防性移民是解决生态高危区居民生存与发展问题的有效方式之一。本文对甘肃省定西地区四个村落发放实地调查问卷,建立预防性移民迁移意愿影响因素多元回归模型。在模型中着重考察家庭经济状况、社会资本、家庭决策类型、受教育水平、风险认知等对移民迁移意愿的影响。结果发现:风险行为、家庭社会资本、受教育水平对移民意愿存在显著负向影响;风险态度、环境风险认知对移民意愿呈显著的正向作用;而家庭经济收入、家庭决策类型对移民意愿无影响。为促进生态高危区的预防性移民,特建议:加大当地居民受教育水平,增加就业机会;根据风险认知因素对移民分类,针对性地开展迁移宣传动员和安置工作;发挥高社会资本人群的带头示范作用;加大政府财政和相关政策上的倾斜。Preventive migration is an effective means to solve survival and development problems of the population in ecologically high-risk areas.In this paper,field survey questionnaires are distributed at four villages in Dingxi City,Gansu Province,an ecologically high-risk area in China.Multivariate regression model is established to analyze the influencing factors of preventive migration willingness.The model focuses on family income,social capital,type of household decision-making,education level,risk perception and so on.The result shows that the risk behavior,family social capital,education level have significant negative effect on willingness of migrants;risk attitudes,environmental risk perception have significant positive effect;family income,type of household decision-making have no significant effect.To promote preventive migration in ecologically high-risk areas,the paper puts forward such suggestions as improving local residentseducational level,increasing employment opportunities,classifying migrants according to risk perception and carrying out propaganda and mobilization on migration and resettlement,making good use of the leading and exemplary roles of the high social capital group,and increasing government financial and policy support.

关 键 词：生态高危区 预防性移民 迁移意愿 风险认知 

分 类 号：F299.24[经济管理—国民经济]