大连港与营口港集装箱业务竞争态势及其演化——基于Lotka-Volterra模型的分析  

Analysis of Competitive Situation and Evolution of Container Business of Dalian Port and Yingkou Port: An Analysis Based on Lotka-Volterra Model

作　　者：苗晴[1] 马小剑[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏大学财经学院,江苏镇江212013 [2]江苏科技大学船舶与海洋工程学院,江苏镇江212003

出　　处：《物流技术》2015年第19期83-86,共4页Logistics Technology

基　　金：江苏大学高级人才专项资助项目(11JDG173);国家自然科学基金青年项目(51309124)

摘　　要：利用生态学描述种间竞争的Lotka-Volterra模型,分析近年来大连港与营口港集装箱业务的竞争及其演变,得出结论:在2009年4月-2011年12月时期,两个港口之间存在互惠型竞争关系;而在2012年1月-2015年6月时期,两个港口之间演变为捕食型竞争关系。根据经济发展规律构建港口群集团,是避免过度竞争、优化资源、促进港口结构升级的良好举措。In this paper, using the Lotka-Volterra model which describes inter-species competition, we analyzed the competition and evolution of the container business of the Dalian port and Yingkou port in recent years, and found that for the period between April 2009 and December 2011, there existed a reciprocal competitive relationship between the two, but for the period between January 2012 and June 2015, the relationship turned predatory. At the end, accordingly, we proposed to establish a port cluster structure so as to avoid over-competition, optimize resource deployment and propel the structural upgrading of the ports.

关 键 词：集装箱港口 竞争态势 演变分析 LOTKA-VOLTERRA模型 大连港 营口港 

分 类 号：U169[交通运输工程] F552[经济管理—产业经济]