基于空间面板模型的碳排放影响因素分析——以长江经济带为例  

ANALYSIS OF INFLUENTIAL FACTORS OF CARBON EMISSION BASED ON SPATIAL PANEL MODELS—— A CASE STUDY FOR YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC BELT

作　　者：李建豹[1] 黄贤金[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210023 [2]国土资源部海岸带开发与保护重点实验室,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2015年第10期1665-1671,共7页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(1214073);中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2012065)

摘　　要：随着全球变暖问题的日益严峻,气候问题引起了国际社会的广泛关注。长江经济带作为中国区域发展＂三大战略＂之一,面临着严峻的碳减排压力。为此,以二氧化碳排放为测度指标,定量分析了1998~2012年长江经济带二氧化碳的时空格局特征,并构建碳排放影响因素的空间面板模型,分析了产业结构、人口总量、经济水平、技术水平与城市化水平对长江经济带碳排放的影响。研究结果表明：1碳排放的绝对差异呈增大趋势,相对差异呈波动变化趋势;碳排放与人均GDP（1997年不变价）的相关性较弱;2碳排放空间格局相对稳定,高碳排放区域以江苏为中心,逐渐向四周扩散;3空间面板模型结果表明：人口总量是影响长江经济带碳排放时空格局演化的决定性因素,其次依次为经济水平、技术水平和城市化水平。As the global warming problem is increasingly serious,it has caused widespread concern in the international community.As one of regional development ＂ three strategies＂ in China,Yangtze River Economic Belt is facing severe pressure to reduce carbon emission.This paper used carbon dioxide emissions as a measure index to analyze the time and space character from 1998 to 2012in Yangtze River Economic Belt,and applied spatial panel models on carbon emission to analyze the impact of industrial structure,total population,economic level,technical level and urbanization level on carbon emission in this area.The results showed that：1 The absolute difference in carbon emissions was increasing,while the relative difference was changing in a fluctuation;the correlation between carbon emissions and per capita GDP（1997constant prices）was weak.2 The region of higher carbon emissions centered at Jiangsu,and gradually spread to the surrounding,and the spatial pattern of carbon emission is relatively stable.3 The spatial panel model results showed that：total population is the determinant factor followed by economic level,technical level and urbanization level influencing the spatial evolution of carbon emission in this area.

关 键 词：碳排放 时间特征 空间格局演化 空间面板模型 长江经济带 

分 类 号：X5[环境科学与工程—环境工程]