国际资本流动模式及其国际经济影响模拟研究  

Global Capital Flow Modes and Simulation Study of Their International Economic Impacts

作　　者：顾高翔[1] 王铮[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学人口研究所,上海200241 [2]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190 [3]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200241

出　　处：《财经研究》2015年第11期58-70,共13页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2012CB955800);国家自然科学基金项目(41171104);国家自然科学基金项目(41501130)

摘　　要：国际资本流动是影响世界经济格局的重要因素,对中国未来的经济发展和在世界经济体系中的地位也起着关键性的作用。文章构建了一个经济一体化格局下包含创新机制的多国多部门的一般均衡模型,设计了两种国际资本流动模式,对不同国际资本流动模式驱使下各主要国家经济发展和产业分工格局进行了模拟。研究发现:(1)当前国际资本流动模式是介于投资回报率均衡模式和资本吸引力模式之间的混合模式,这种情景将使中国、印度等发展中国家获得较高的经济增长速度;(2)在混合模式情景下,各部门都存在产业重心从发达国家向发展中国家转移的趋势,劳动力密集型产业的转移幅度普遍高于资本密集型产业;(3)国际资本流动模式的改变对国家间经济关系和经济地位的变化具有显著影响:当国际资本流动完全遵循投资回报率均衡时,资本更倾向于流动到具有较大市场规模的发达国家,而当国际资本完全按照资本吸引力流动时,资本倾向于流动到发展中国家,而发达国家可能出现"再工业化"的现象。由于三种情景下均将长期处于资本净流出状态,中国需要制定合理的政策措施,对资本流动进行引导,提高资本吸收能力,突破当前国际资本流动格局的束缚。Global capital flow is an important factor influencing global economic struc- ture, and also plays a key role in future economic development and economic status of China in world economic system. This paper constructs a multi-country and multi-sector general equilibrium model including innovation mechanisms behind economic integration, designs two different modes of global capital flow, and simulates the effects of global cap- ital flow modes on economic development and industrial division of labor of the major countries. It comes to the following results： firstly, current global capital flow mode is a mixture of investment return equilibrium and capital attractiveness modes, leading to high- er economic growth rates in developing countries like China and India; secondly, under the mixed mode, there is a general trend of the industrial cores transferring from developed countries to developing countries, and the transfer in labor-intensive sectors is stronger than the one in capital-intensive sectors; thirdly, global capital flow mode change has sig- nificant effects on changes in economic relations among countries and their economic statu- ses： when global capital flow follows the investment return equilibrium mode completely, capital tends to move to developed countries with larger market scales, on the contrast when it follows the capital attractiveness mode completely, capital tends to move to devel- oping countries, and a phenomenon of ＂re-industrialization＂ may emerge in developed countries. Because of long-term net capital outflows in three scenarios, China needs to for- mulate reasonable policy measures, guide capital flow, improve capital absorptive capacity and break through the tie of current international capital flow structure.

关 键 词：国际资本流动 一般均衡模型 投资回报率均衡 资本吸引力 产业结构变化 

分 类 号：F740.2[经济管理—国际贸易]