应用圆形分布法分析中国2004-2013年结核病发病的季节性特征  

Using circular distribution method to analyze seasonal characteristic of tuberculosis,2004-2013

作　　者：熊勇超[1] 夏兰芳 杨志光[3] 王林[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心政策研究与健康传播中心,北京102206 [2]北京法马苏提克咨询有限公司 [3]首都师范大学管理学院

出　　处：《中国公共卫生管理》2015年第5期624-626,共3页Chinese Journal of Public Health Management

摘　　要：目的分析中国2004-2013年结核病发病的季节性特征,为制定结核病防治策略和措施提供科学依据。方法采用圆形分布的统计原理,对中国2004-2013年结核病发病情况进行季节性分析。结果 2004-2013年结核病发病存在明显的集中趋势(Z=59 072.71,P<0.05)。结核病发病的高峰日为5月26日,发病高峰日95%的可信区间为5月25日到5月26日,流行高峰期为每年的1月10日至10月8日。结论中国结核病发病有明显的季节性,有必要在结核病发病高峰期加强监测和管理,从而更加有效降低结核病的发病率。Objective To understand the seasonal distribution of tuberculosis between 2003 and 2013 and provide scientific bases for the development of preventive strategies and measures against tuberculosis. Methods Using circular distribution method to analysis the seasonal distribution of tuberculosis between 2003 and 2013. Results From 2004 to2013, the distribution of tuberculosis incidence has obvious central tendency（Z=59072.71,P〈0.05）, with the peak day of May 26 th and peak season of January 10 th to October 8th, and 95% CI of the peak day was May 25 th to May 26 th.Conclusion The obvious seasonal distribution of tuberculosis exists in our country. Thus in order to prevent and control tuberculosis, it＇s necessary to put effort on monitoring and management of tuberculosis in epidemic peak period.

关 键 词：圆形分布法 结核病 季节性特点 

分 类 号：R195.4[医药卫生—卫生统计学]