基于建筑结构破坏的地震伤亡评估方法及应用  

Structure destruction based earthquake casualty estimates

作　　者：李媛媛[1] 陈建国[1] 张小乐[1] 袁宏永[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学工程物理系,公共安全研究院,北京100084

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第7期803-807,814,共6页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(91024024)

摘　　要：震后的人员伤亡评估对启动应急预案和组织开展应急救援工作具有重要指导意义。美国地震评估软件HAZUS采用了基于建筑易损性的人员伤亡评估方法,但该模型主要基于美国加利福尼亚州的建筑结构。为进行以震后应急为目的人员伤亡快速评估,该文通过假设条件对模型进行简化,以汶川地震为案例对人员伤亡情况进行了预测,验证了该方法的有效性和对中国建筑结构的适用性。预测的受伤人员数与实际统计数据接近,遇难人员较实际人数偏低,原因是模型严重低估了极震区的遇难人数。预测结果与实际情况基本吻合,能够反映地震导致人员伤亡的严重程度,简化的模型更加适用于震后应急响应阶段的人员伤亡快速评估,具有一定的实用价值。Post-earthquake casualty estimates are of great importance for emergency planning and rescues.The USA earthquake software HAZUS estimates casualties based on building vulnerability,but the model is mainly developed for building structures in California.A simplified rapid casualty assessment model is developed for emergency response and verified against data from the Wenchuan earthquake for Chinese building structures.The estimated number of injuries is close to the actual number,but the estimated number of deaths is lower,because the model seriously underestimates fatalities in the epicenter area.The predicted results are consistent with the actual situation and reflect the severity of the earthquake casualties.The simplified model is suitable for rapid casualty assessments to direct post-earthquake emergency response.

关 键 词：地震人员伤亡 能力谱方法 地理信息系统 ShakeMap HAZUS 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学]