基于人口结构转变的老龄消费研究  

Aging Consumption Study Based on Population Transition

作　　者：崔凡 覃松 伍德安 

机构地区：[1]贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,北京100029 [2]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海200439

出　　处：《吉林大学社会科学学报》2015年第6期17-24,171,共8页Jilin University Journal Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(12YJC840065);对外经济贸易大学研究生科研创新基金项目(201420);上海财经大学研究生创新基金项目(CXJJ-2013-406)

摘　　要：中国在较短的时间内经历了从人口数量向人口结构的转变,人口年龄结构由年轻型过渡到老年型,人口结构的转变催生了庞大的老龄市场的形成与发展,老龄经济将有可能成为中国新的经济增长点。以中国2010年第六次人口普查数据和1998—2012年居民平均消费水平数据为基础,构造生存模型测算老龄人口数量,并构建灰色GM(1,1)模型预测老龄消费规模,研究结果显示:2011—2050年总人口数量先增后减,至2050年为12.14亿,老龄人口则持续上升到4.46亿,而老龄消费占比由2011年的10.65%提升至2050年的30.14%。不断增长的老龄消费支出孕育着较大的消费潜能和市场机遇,中国政府应抓住机遇,大力发展老龄经济,推动经济社会转型协调发展。China's population has experienced changes from quantity to structure in a short time,w ith age structure changing from young type to aging type. The changes of population structure have stimulated the formation and development of large aging market and these changes w ill become the new grow ing points of China's economy. This paper is based on the statistics of China's sixth population census in 2010 and the resident average consumption from 1998 to2012,using survival models to calculate the quantity of aging population and the Grey GM( 1,1) model to predict the scale of its consumption. Research show s that the total population first increases and then declines betw een 2011 and2050,reaching 1. 214 billion in 2050,w hile the aging population keeps rising to 446 million and the percentage of its consumption grow s from 10. 65% in 2011 to 30. 14% in 2050. This continuously grow ing expenditure contains large potential of consumption and market opportunities. Therefore,China's government should seize the opportunities,enhance the development of the economy and adjust to the new environment after these changes.

关 键 词：人口结构转变 经济转型 老龄消费 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] F126.1