人口红利、工资刚性与加工贸易增值强度  

Demographic Dividend, Wage Rigidity and Processing Trade Value–added Intensity

作　　者：翟士军[1,2] 黄汉民[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,430073 [2]河南科技学院经济与管理学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2015年第11期39-50,共12页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：中南财经政法大学博士生科研创新课题项目"基于全球价值链视角下中国企业出口增加值提升路径研究"(2015B1006)

摘　　要：廉价而庞大的劳动力被认为是中国加工贸易产业发展的关键,随着人口红利拐点的来临和工资上涨压力,加工贸易增值强度呈现停滞趋势。本文通过构建理论模型以及对2003-2012年省级面板数据的实证研究,发现工资刚性对加工贸易出口额和增值强度都具有显著负效应,而人口红利对加工贸易出口额具有显著的正效应,但对加工贸易增值强度的相关性不显著。因此促进加工贸易产业转型升级与加工贸易向中西部地区转移是解决人口红利拐点和工资刚性问题的关键。Cheap and vast labor is considered to be the key to the develop-ment of the processing trade industry. With the advent of the mining point of de- mographic dividend and the wage rigidity, processing trade value- added intensity shows the trend of stagnation. By constructing a theoretical model and combined with the 2003- 2012 empirical provincial panel research, this paper proves that wage rigidity has a significant negative effect on both the export and value- add- ed intensity of processing trade, and the demographic dividend has a significant positive effect on the export of processing trade, but the correlation with the val-ue- added intensity of processing trade is not significant. Therefore, the key to solving the problem of turning point of demographic dividend and wage rigidity is to promote the upgrading of processing trade and transferring the processing trade to the central and western regions.

关 键 词：人口红利 工资 加工贸易 增值强度 

分 类 号：F752.61[经济管理—国际贸易]