基于扩展的Kaya恒等式的中国农业碳排放驱动因素分析  

Analysis of CO_2 emission driving factors in China's agriculture based on expanded Kaya identity

作　　者：戴小文[1,2] 何艳秋[1] 钟秋波[3] 

机构地区：[1]四川农业大学经济管理学院,成都611130 [2]四川农业大学四川省农村发展研究中心,成都611130 [3]四川师范大学文科学报编辑部,成都610066

出　　处：《中国科学院大学学报（中英文）》2015年第6期751-759,共9页Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(14XGL003);四川省科技厅软科学项目(2015ZR0216);四川省社科规划统计发展专项(SC14TJ18);四川省教育厅科研项目(W14243226)资助

摘　　要：理清影响农业低碳发展的关键因素有助于农业现代化的顺利实现.本研究对Kaya恒等式进行扩展,将农业碳排放分解为一般技术、农业低碳技术、农村生活水平、间接城镇化与总人口变动等因素,通过差额分析因素分解方法分析以上因素对中国农业碳排放的驱动方向与贡献率,发现农村生活水、城镇化以及总人口变动因素正向影响农业碳排放变动,而一般技术与农业低碳技术因素则负向影响农业碳排放变动.从各因素变动引起农业碳排放的无方向贡献看有下列关系:农村生活水平效应>农业低碳技术效应>间接城镇化效应>一般技术效应>总人口变动效应.Agricultural modernization is a transition process from traditional agriculture to modarn agriculture,and the low-carbon agricultural way is an important approach in this transition. This study decomposes the CO2 emission into five contributory factors based on an expanded Kaya identity. The five factors are general technology, agricultural low-carbon technology, rural affluence,indirect urbanization,and total population scale. With the incremental analysis we find that the rural affluence,urbanization,and total population scale are driving the agricultural CO2 emission positively,while the general technology and agricultural low-carbon technology are driving the agricultural CO2 emission negatively. Contribution without direction to total agricultural CO2 emission caused by alteration of each factor is exhibited as： rural affluence influence agricultural low-carbon technology influence indrect urbanization influence general technology influence total population scale influence.

关 键 词：农业碳排放 Kaya恒等式 驱动因素 因素分解 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]