中国通货膨胀预期异质性研究——兼论我国中央银行的通货膨胀预期管理  

Study on Heterogeneity of Inflation Expectations in China:And on the Central Bank Inflation Expectations Management

作　　者：程均丽[1] 李雪[2] 刘枭[3] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学中国金融研究中心,邮政编码610074 [2]首都经济贸易大学金融学院,邮政编码100070 [3]西南财经大学继续(网络)教育学院,邮政编码610074

出　　处：《经济评论》2015年第6期17-39,54,共24页Economic Review

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"异质预期;预期管理与通货膨胀目标制研究"(项目编号:13JJD790023);西南财经大学2014年度"中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金"项目"前瞻性指引与市场化货币政策调控机制研究"(项目编号:JBK140954);西南财经大学2015年度"中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金"重大基础理论研究项目"0利率下限与货币政策前瞻性指引研究"(项目编号:JBK151118)的资助~~

摘　　要：本文使用KL距离法,借助于"朗润预测"数据,全面分析了我国通货膨胀预期异质性。我国通货膨胀预期具有较为明显的异质性,尤其是在遭遇重大冲击时,无论是经济本身的,还是制度、政策外在冲击,或者主体的情绪(动物精神)变化,预期分歧会陡然增大。通货膨胀预期异质性与实际通货膨胀存在单向的Granger因果关系。从社会与主体自身两方面的因素分析显示,提高货币政策可信性、缩小认知偏差可以降低通货膨胀预期异质性。我国通货膨胀预期更趋向于后顾型预期这种异质预期型态。后顾型预期,一方面,如果缺乏可靠的基础,极易发生突然而剧烈的变化;另一方面,由于其后顾性,会加重通货膨胀或紧缩的波动性和持久性,造成其累积过程。为此,我国中央银行应为私人部门预期建立一个稳固的、强大的名义锚,使得经济生成预期的自动稳定机制,并在预期管理中,防止经济跌入由预期分歧引发的"预期陷阱",培育更具前瞻性的预期模式。Using the KL distance method, with the ＂Lang-run forecast＂ data, this paper analyzes the heterogeneity of inflation expectations comprehensively. China＇ s inflation expectations have more obvious heterogeneity, especially in the case of significant shocks, whether the economy itself, or the external shocks from institution and policy, or agents＇ emotional （animal spirits） changes, expectations diversity may increase sharply. The heterogeneity of inflation expectations and the actual inflation has unidirectional Granger causality. The factor analysis of society and agents themselves shows that increasing the credibility of monetary policy or reducing cognitive biases can reduce inflation expectations heterogeneity. China＇ s heterogeneous inflation expectations tend to be extrapolative expectations. On the one hand, due to the lack of reliable basis, extrapolative expectations are prone to change suddenly and drastically; On the other hand, because of their backward-looking, they will aggravate volatility and persistence of inflation or deflation, causing their cumulative process. So, the Central Bank should establish a solid and strong nominal anchor for private agents, which can not only make the economy generate the expectations automatic stabilization mechanisms, but also can prevent the economy from failing into the ＂expectations trap＂ caused by expectations diversity in management of expectations, and foster more forward-looking pattern of expectations.

关 键 词：异质性 学习 预期管理 货币政策 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]