反思“修昔底德陷阱”：权力转移进程与中美新型大国关系  

Rethinking the Thucydides Trap:the Process of Power Transition and a New Model of Major-Country Relations Between China and the United States

作　　者：陈永[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学国际关系学院国际关系专业2014级,北京100871

出　　处：《国际论坛》2015年第6期8-13,77,共6页International Forum

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“中美构建新型大国关系的理论基础研究”(项目编号:13BGJ049)的阶段性成果

摘　　要："修昔底德陷阱"是因对权力转移的历史进程进行粗略概括和简单类比而产生的过度解读。权力转移是一个漫长而不确定的进程,并不必然导致战争。权力转移战争发生的主要原因是主导国或崛起国的核心利益受到挑战,这不可简单归因于实力增长引起的恐惧。当前中美正处于新一轮权力转移的初始阶段,两国发生军事冲突对抗的风险主要也在于彼此的核心利益可能受到挑战。中美新型大国关系是中美在认真汲取历史教训的基础上旨在实现合作共赢的尝试。不过,中美就相互尊重核心利益问题分歧严重使得两国难以有效化解冲突与对抗的风险。在战略安全互信水平不高的情况下,中美只有切实尊重对方的核心利益,才能有效进行核心利益调适和危机管控,进而避免冲突与对抗。The concept of Thucydides Trap misinterpreted the historical process of power transition,which is a long and uncertain process,but does not necessarily lead to war.The primary cause of war in power transition is that the core interests of leading power or rising power are challenged,and it cannot simply be attributed to fear caused by the growth of power.China and the United States are currently on the initial stage of a new process of power transition,and the risk of military conflict and confrontation between them will result from the core interests of either power being challenged.Building a New Model of Major-Country Relations between China and the United States is a positive lesson learned from the past for both countries as well as an ambitious attempt to realise win-win cooperation.However,the serious disagreement of China and the United States on respects for each other's core interests,makes it difficult to mitigate the risks of conflict and confrontation efficiently.Because of the low level of mutual trust,China and the United States should truly show respect for each other's core interests.Only in this way can the two countries effectively adjust their core interests and manage crisis,and then avoid conflict and confrontation.

关 键 词：修昔底德陷阱 权力转移进程 核心利益 战争风险 中美新型大国关系 

分 类 号：D51[政治法律—政治学]