基于灰自助GBM(1,1)的滚动轴承摩擦力矩不确定性的动态预报方法  

Dynamic Forecasting Method for Uncertainty of Friction Torque for Rolling Bearings Based on Grey Bootstrap GBM( 1,1)

作　　者：时保吉[1] 栗永非[1] 

机构地区：[1]新乡职业技术学院,河南新乡453006

出　　处：《轴承》2015年第11期35-38,共4页Bearing

摘　　要：针对滚动轴承摩擦力矩变异过程的不确定性,通过融合灰预测模型GM(1,1)、自助原理以及扩展不确定度的概念,在乏信息条件下,建立了滚动轴承摩擦力矩不确定性的动态灰自助预报模型GBM(1,1),该模型可以由小样本数据预报大量数据,进而得到摩擦力矩的概率分布,获得给定置信水平下滚动轴承摩擦力矩的动态不确定度。通过试验研究,验证了该模型的正确性与有效性。Aiming at the uncertainty of variation process for friction torque performance of rolling bearings,the dynamic grey bootstrap GBM（1,1）forecasting model for uncertainty of friction torque performance for rolling bearings is built by fusing grey forecasting model GM（1,1）,bootstrap principle and concept of expanded uncertainty under poor infor-mation condition.By using the model,a large number of data can be predicted by a small sample data,and then the probability distribution of friction torque is obtained.Finally,the dynamic uncertainty of friction torque performance for rolling bearings is got under given confidence level.The effectiveness and correctness of model are verified by experi-mental research.

关 键 词：滚动轴承 摩擦力矩 不确定性 乏信息 灰自助模型 

分 类 号：TH133.33[机械工程—机械制造及自动化]