基于威布尔分布的油纸套管寿命预测模型  

Life Prediction Model for Oil-impregnated Paper Bushing Based on Weibull Distribution

作　　者：杨贤[1] 冯达[2] 李冲[3] 林春耀[1] 柯春俊[1] 吴锴[3] 

机构地区：[1]广东电网公司电力科学研究院,广州510080 [2]国网河北省电力公司电力科学研究院,石家庄050022 [3]西安交通大学电气工程学院电力设备与电气绝缘国家重点实验室,西安710049

出　　处：《高压电器》2015年第11期103-109,共7页High Voltage Apparatus

摘　　要：为研究油纸套管的寿命分布以及发生层间击穿后的剩余寿命,结合绝缘材料寿命的威布尔分布理论,建立了套管绝缘层寿命模型。并利用蒙特卡罗方法仿真计算了某型号110 k V油纸套管的寿命分布以及发生层间击穿后的剩余寿命分布。研究表明,该型号油纸套管的寿命符合形状参数为19.68,尺度参数为22.05的威布尔分布。当发生一层和两层击穿之后,形状参数分别减小为5.47和0.22,这意味着发生层间击穿之后由于电场分布的改变使得套管的寿命会迅速减小,层间击穿对于套管内绝缘是一个自加速过程,这对油纸套管的监测与检修具有一定的意义。To investigate the life distribution of oil-impregnated paper （OIP） bushing before and after interlayerbreakdown, a life prediction model for OIP bushing is built using Weibull distribution theory. Then Monte Carlomethod is used to simulate and calculate the life distribution of a 110 kV OIP bushing before and after breakdown.Results show that the life distribution of the OIP bushing follows Weibull distribution with the shape parameter of19.68 and the scale parameter of 22.05. The shape parameter reduces to 5.48 and 0.22 after one-layer breakdownand two-layer breakdown, respectively. It means that the residual life of the bushing decreases rapidly due to theelectric field change after interlayer breakdown. Breakdown of the bushing insulation is a self-accelerated process.This study may be helpful for maintenance and monitoring of oil-impregnated paper bushings.

关 键 词：油纸套管 寿命预测 威布尔分布 电场分布 蒙特卡罗仿真 

分 类 号：TM216.5[一般工业技术—材料科学与工程]