基于椭球模型的岩坡稳定非概率可靠评价研究  

Non-probabilistic Reliability Analysis Based on the Ellipsoidal Model of Rock Slope Stability

作　　者：韩孝峰 陈海军[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《西华大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第6期96-100,共5页Journal of Xihua University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费重点基金项目(Y313011);江苏省科技支撑计划项目(BE2011373)

摘　　要：在考虑影响因素的不确定性条件下,快速有效地评价岩坡的稳定状态成为目前研究的热点。传统概率可靠方法评价要求数据充足且服从某种概率分布,工程中难以实测大量数据支持,从而阻碍了该方法的推广应用。本文针对以上不足,结合平面滑动型岩坡在只需确定变化范围的前提下应用椭球模型表达不确定影响因素的变异性质,采用相应的非概率可靠指标评价了岩石边坡的稳定状态,与蒙特卡洛模拟法计算结果的对比显示两种评价结果一致。基于椭球模型的非概率可靠评价方法所需数据量小,计算简便快捷,在岩坡稳定问题的评价中具有一定的适用性。For evaluating the slopes＇ stability accurately and quickly,non- probabilistic reliability based on the ellipsoidal model is used to overcome the existing disadvantages. Firstly,uncertain parameters are considered via the ellipsoidal model of the rock slope.And then the corresponding methods are used to calculate the non- probabilistic reliability index to evaluate the slope＇s stability. Finally,the Monte- Carlo simulation were carried out to evaluate the rock slope＇s stability as a comparison. The result shows that the non- probabilistic reliability analysis is more efficient and applicable.

关 键 词：椭球模型 非概率可靠 岩石边坡 稳定性评价 蒙特卡洛模拟 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计] TP18[理学—数学]