基于多级模糊数学和熵权法的输变电工程造价风险评价研究  

Cost Risk Assessment of Power Transmission Project Based on Multistage Fuzzy Mathematics and Entropy

作　　者：张军 谢洪平 张东 刘婷 

机构地区：[1]国网江苏省电力公司电力经济技术研究院,江苏南京210008

出　　处：《陕西电力》2015年第10期62-67,共6页Shanxi Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助(71102072);中央高校科研基金项目资助(2013B07814);江苏省电力公司科技创新项目(20158504616)

摘　　要：输变电工程的投入大、周期长、计价程序复杂等特点决定了其在造价管理过程中存在较大风险。为了对输变电工程造价风险进行客观公正的评价,构建了以技术风险、管理风险、政策风险、经济风险和自然风险为一级风险指标,每个一级指标中又包含若干个二级指标的输变电工程造价风险评价指标体系。在此基础上构建基于模糊数学和熵权法的综合评价模型,首先通过熵权法确定各个评价指标的权重,然后运用多级模糊数学综合评价方法对各单元及整个项目造价风险进行评价,得出每个一级风险指标得分和整个项目的综合风险评价得分,从2个方面对造价风险进行评价。结果表明:基于熵权法和模糊数学的综合评价模型能够很好地应用于实践中,评价结果客观合理,具有较强的实用性。The transmission and distribution project is of large investment, long cycle and complex valuation procedures, which causes a big risk in the cost management for the transmission and distribution project. In order to make an objective and fair evaluation on cost risk in the transmission and distribution project, the paper establishes an evaluation index system, which takes the technical risk, management risk, policy risk, economic risk and natural risk as the first level of risk index, while each first level of the risk index contains a number of second level index. Based on which the paper builds a comprehensive evaluation model by using fuzzy mathematics and entropy weight method. The weight of each evaluation index is determined by entropy weight method firstly. And then, the multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the risk of each unit and the whole project cost. The score of each first level risk index and the comprehensive risk evaluation of the whole project is obtained. The evaluation on the cost risk is completed from two aspects. The results show that the evaluation result of the model is objective and reasonable, and the comprehensive evaluation model based on entropy weight and fuzzy mathematics can be used in practice.

关 键 词：输变电工程 造价风险 模糊数学 熵权法 

分 类 号：TM733[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]