中美两种经济“新常态”:基本特征及交互作用  

Two Kinds “New Normal” of China and the United States:Their Basic Characteristics and Interactive Relationship

作　　者：高帆[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433

出　　处：《学术月刊》2015年第11期35-48,共14页Academic Monthly

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“我国城乡要素交换关系完善的理论研究与实证分析”(12CJL039)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：后金融危机时期,中美均开始步入各自的经济"新常态",这导致两国经济的交互方式发生了变化。本文提出了中美两种"新常态"及其交互作用的分析框架,以结构变动为主线分析了中美"新常态"的基本特征。美国的"新常态"表现为产业结构的再工业化、投入结构的创新引领和需求结构的储蓄提升,这些转变短期内取得了较好绩效但伴生着政府资产负债表的恶化。中国的"新常态"表现为产业结构的去工业化、投入结构的创新增强和需求结构的消费增长,其绩效需放在更长时段内考察。两种"新常态"在背景上均具有"挑战-回应"特征,但在内容、绩效等方面存在差异,这导致中美的贸易关联、金融关联、周期关联和政策关联等交互作用出现了变动。立足于"新常态"及交互作用,"重新挂钩"和"渐进脱钩"应成为中国对美经济政策选择的基准。Based on the literature review, the paper proposes the analysis framework of Sino- US economic ＂new normal＂ and their interactions. American ＂new normal＂ be manifested as re- industrialization, stimulation innovation and promoting savings, these structural changes have made good performance in the short term but associated with the deterioration of the government balance sheet. China＇s ＂new normal＂ be manifested as de-industrialization, encouraging innovation and increasing consumption, its development performance should be studied in a longer period. Two kinds ＂new normal＂ have the ＂challenge-response＂ features in the background, but they are not belong to the same type in content and performance. Acoording to two kinds ＂new normal＂, Sino-US trade association, financial association, cycle association and policy association have changed.

关 键 词：新常态 美国经济 中国经济 交互作用 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济]