中国-新西兰自贸区建立前后两国羊毛贸易格局变化研究  

The Study of Changes of the Wool Trade Pattern between China and New Zealand before and after the establishment of the CN-FTA

作　　者：耿仲钟[1] 肖海峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《武汉纺织大学学报》2015年第5期6-11,共6页Journal of Wuhan Textile University

基　　金：农业部和财政部项目(CARS-40-20)

摘　　要：利用1994-2013年UN COMTRADE数据库数据研究中国-新西兰自由贸易区建立前后两国羊毛进出口贸易格局的变化,并使用巴拉萨模型通过测算中国与新西兰羊毛进出口需求弹性的变化进一步检验自贸区的建立对中新羊毛贸易的影响。研究结果表明:自贸区的建立使得中新两国双边羊毛进出口总量大幅增加;中国自新西兰的羊毛进口总量在自贸区建立之后扭转了之前波动下降的局面,出现了较为显著的增长;自贸区建立之前,中国仅在少数几个年份对新西兰有羊毛出口,自贸区的建立在一定程度上扩大了中国对新西兰的羊毛出口;巴拉萨模型的估计结果同样表明自贸区的建立促进了中国自新西兰的羊毛(原毛和洗净毛)进口,也推动了中国对新西兰的毛条出口。最后基于以上研究结论,文章提出了相应的政策建议。Based on the UN COMTRADE data from 1994 to 2013, this paper studies the changes of the trade pattern of wool import and export between China and New Zealand, and uses the Balassa model to further examine the impact of the establishment of FTA on China and New Zealand wool trade. The results show that the establishment of the FTA reverses the decline in wool trade volume before and makes the bilateral wool trade volume increased significantly after the establishment of FTA; also the establishment of FTA expands China＇s wool exportation to New Zealand while that exists only a few years formerly. Balassa model’s results also show that the establishment of the FTA promotes China’s wool （raw wool and clean wool） importation from New Zealand and China＇s top wool exportation to New Zealand.

关 键 词：中国-新西兰自贸区 贸易格局 巴拉萨模型 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]