MGM(1,n)模型下的公交车运行时间预测  

Bus Travel Time Prediction Based on MGM(1,n)

作　　者：林雨平[1] 伍雄斌[2] 肖林盛 

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学金山学院,福建福州350002 [2]北京工业大学交通工程北京市重点实验室,北京100124

出　　处：《厦门理工学院学报》2015年第5期17-21,共5页Journal of Xiamen University of Technology

基　　金：福建省中青年教师教育科研项目(JA14364)

摘　　要：针对城市公交系统的复杂性和随机性,应用灰色理论建立了公交车运行时间的多变量灰色预测模型(MGM(1,n)),对晴天高峰时段、雨天高峰时段和平峰时段的公交车运行时间进行预测.预测结果表明:不同时段公交车运行时间预测的平均相对误差均在5%以内,模型精度等级符合预测要求.Public transport is an important means of transportation for residents, and advanced public transportation system includes good prediction of bus travel time that promises efficiency for residents＇ travel.Aiming at the randomness and complexity of the public transportation,the multi-variable gray prediction model（ MGM（ 1,n）） was built based on the gray theory and tested for its accuracy in predicting the bus travel time at peak hours on sunny days and rainy days and at non-peak hours. The results show that the average relative error of the model is less than 5% and the level of accuracy meets the requirement.

关 键 词：公共交通 灰色模型 运行时间 

分 类 号：U491.17[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]