副热带高压脊线北跳日期预测及其与中国初台关系的研究  

RESEARCH ON SUBTROPICAL HIGH NORTHWARD JUMPING AND THE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE MADE LANDFALL IN CHINA

作　　者：林美静 王彦明 张颖[4,5] 苏小莉[6] 

机构地区：[1]中山市气象台,广东中山528400 [2]厦门市气象台,福建厦门361012 [3]海峡气象开放实验室,福建厦门361012 [4]中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心,北京100029 [5]中国科学院气候变化研究中心,北京100029 [6]中国科学院地球环境研究所气溶胶化学与物理重点实验室,陕西西安710075

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2015年第5期619-631,共13页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41305074)资助

摘　　要：基于西太平洋副热带高压（副高）变化与西北太平洋热带气旋（TC）活动的关系,利用1980—2013年NCEP/NCAR再分析日平均、月平均数据,计算副高脊线第一次北跳至25°N或以北,30°N以南的副高北跳日期序列。选取超前于副高北跳日期的三个气候变量为预测因子,建立了1980—2008年的副高北跳日期的多元线性回归方程模型,并由此预测2009—2013年的副高北跳日期。模型的整体模拟能力较好,但在某些年份的模拟结果与实际偏差较大;模型的回报预测结果能较好地描述2009—2013年副高北跳日期的年际变化特征。进一步利用美国联合台风预警中心数据,分析显示中国初台的登陆日期与副高北跳日期显著正相关;在多数年份中,副高北跳后的1~7天内,有西北太平洋TC登陆中国。通过对比副高北跳早晚年的大气环流场发现：副高早（晚）跳年,5—7月平均的西太平洋季风槽较常年偏东（较常年不明显）,季风槽南侧纬向风辐合异常（纬向风辐合异常中心偏东、偏北）;同期的副高中心较常年偏北（偏南）。这些环流异常可能有利于（不利于）西北太平洋TC生成并向中国方向移动,从而造成中国初台登陆日期容易偏早（偏晚）。The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data substituted for the observed data in this article as the actual climate situation. Base on change of Subtropical High was related with Tropical Cyclones（TC） activities in western North Pacific, the first day of Subtropical High ridge located between 25 °N and south of 30 °N（i.e. Subtropical High northward jumping day） in one year during 1980—2013 was analyzed. By analyzing and selecting three related advanced climatic variables as predictive factors, a multiple linear regression model for the Subtropical High northward jumping day during 1980—2008 was built. The regression model performed well during 2009—2013, as which could describe the interannual variation of Subtropical High jumping day. It was showed that the day of the first TC that made landfall on China was positively correlated with Subtropical High northward jumping day, and after which in 1~7 days, TC from western North Pacific made landfall on China in most of the years. During the early（late） years of Subtropical High northward jumping days, the average position of monsoon trough during May and July in western North Pacific was more eastward（was not developed yet）, and zonal wind convergence anomaly was centered on south of monsoon trough（the anomaly center was more eastward and northward than which in the early years）. In addition, the subtropical high was more northward（southward）, while the day of the first TC made landfall on China would be early（late）.

关 键 词：副热带高压 副高北跳日期预测 多元线性回归 中国初台 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]